China Solar_ Corporate day takeaways_ Steady global demand growth and potential for US module price hike

Summary of Key Takeaways from China Solar Corporate Day Industry Overview - Industry: Solar Energy - Companies Involved: JA Solar, Jinko Solar A, Trina Solar, CSI Solar A Key Points 1. Global Demand Growth: - Expected global solar installation demand growth of 10%-15% year-over-year, targeting approximately 500 GW in 2025, compared to 9% growth in 2024 [1][2] 2. US Module Price Hike: - High likelihood of module price increases in the US market due to local solar cell shortages. Companies anticipate US module prices to rise between US manufacturing costs and ASEAN imported costs, estimating an increase of at least US$0.05/W to US$0.25/W [2][4] 3. Regulatory Needs: - More regulations are necessary to address below-cost module price bidding in the domestic market. Current market fragmentation and lack of penalties for illegal bidding practices hinder price increases [5] 4. Impact of Export Tax Rebate Cut: - The recent cut in export tax rebates is expected to have a limited impact on module players' profitability, as the rebate is based on value added and current profitability is thin. This could provide a rationale for raising module prices in overseas markets [6] 5. Capacity Expansion Trends: - Companies are exploring capacity expansion in diversified regions outside of China, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, while indicating almost no capacity expansion plans within China, focusing instead on technology upgrades [7] Additional Insights - China's Growth Outlook: - Anticipated growth in China is projected at 0%-10%, driven by potential policy stimulus and improved residential solar demand [3] - Mixed EU Growth: - European growth expectations vary from 0%-20% year-over-year, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and interest rate changes [3] - Emerging Markets Demand: - Continued robust demand is expected in emerging markets such as the Middle East, Asia, and Africa, attributed to attractive solar Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) [3]