China Healthcare_ 4Q24 Plasma Supply Saw Uptick, but Prices At Risk

Industry Overview * Plasma Supply Uptick: The supply of albumin, IVIg, and pdFVIII saw a notable increase in 4Q24, driven by factors such as new collection center openings and increased exports. * Price Concerns: Despite the supply increase, prices may fall slightly in 2025 due to subpar demand, lack of academic promotion, and stricter hospital prescription control. * Valuation Concerns: The plasma segment is currently trading at a 34% discount to the 5-year average, reflecting concerns about pricing and competition from rHSA. * Challenges and Opportunities: The industry faces challenges such as falling prices and competition, but also opportunities such as increased exports, product mix shifts, and structural growth driven by academic promotion, production yield improvement, and new product innovation. Key Products and Companies * Albumin: Domestic albumin outgrew imported albumin in 4Q24, with Tiantan maintaining the leading market share. * IVIg: Tiantan maintained its leading position in the IVIg market, followed by RAAS, Taibang, and Hualan. * pdFVIII: RAAS was the largest player in the pdFVIII market, followed by Hualan, Taibang Bio, and Tiantan. * PCC: Tiantan led the PCC market, followed by Taibang, Nanyue, and Hualan. * Human Fibrinogen: RAAS and Boya led the market, followed by Taibang, Hualan, and Green Cross. Valuation and Market Dynamics * Valuation: The plasma fractionators' valuation is at a trough and likely to stay depressed in the near term due to falling prices and temporary market dynamics. * Market Dynamics: Supply expansion could drive further pricing correction for major PDMPs, especially in retail pharmacies. Plasma players should manage through by increasing exports and shifting their product mix towards high-margin products. Conclusion The China plasma industry is facing challenges and opportunities. While supply has increased, prices may fall due to subpar demand and competition. However, the industry has the potential for structural growth driven by factors such as increased exports, product mix shifts, and new product innovation.