建材行业24Q4业绩前瞻-周期底部或已确认

Key Points Industry Overview 1. Overall Demand Background: The real estate market showed signs of recovery in Q4 2024, with new and second-hand home sales experiencing significant improvements. However, the growth rate of completed construction area remained significantly negative, exerting pressure on the construction materials industry [2]. 2. Industry Outlook: The construction materials industry is expected to see a positive outlook in 2025, driven by domestic demand stabilization and supply-side reforms. Some leading companies are likely to benefit from the industry recovery [2][9]. 3. Policy Impact: The positive real estate policies implemented in Q4 2024, such as special bonds and the relaxation of residential property standards in new first-tier cities, have effectively boosted home sales [2]. Segment Analysis 1. Fiberglass Sector: The fiberglass sector maintained stable profitability in Q4 2024, with both粗纱 and electronic yarn prices experiencing year-on-year growth. The demand for wind glass and thermoplastic glass sand increased significantly, supporting the industry's profitability [4]. 2. Cement Sector: The cement sector saw significant price increases in Q4 2024, with southern regions leading the way. Companies with a high proportion of southern production capacity, such as Anhui Conch Cement and Shanghai Fengsheng Cement, are expected to outperform the industry [5]. 3. Consumer Building Materials Sector: The consumer building materials sector faced challenges due to the decline in construction and completion. The revenue of waterproofing, gypsum board, and home improvement pipe industries faced significant pressure. However, some leading companies with channel transformation maintained relative resilience [6]. 4. Float Glass Sector: The float glass sector experienced a continuous decline in demand and prices in Q4 2024. Although profitability improved on a quarterly basis, the year-on-year pressure remained significant. The industry continued to promote cold repair and production reduction to seek a new balance between supply and demand [8]. Recommendations 1. Recommended Companies: The report recommends a list of companies with strong competitiveness in their respective segments, including Dongfang Yuhong, Anhui Conch Cement, Shanghai Fengsheng Cement, Changhai Stock, China Glass, Weixing New Material, Beixian New Building Materials, Tuzibao, Jianlang Hardware, and Sanke Tree. Additionally, Jidong Cement and Qibin Group are also recommended [9].