聊聊算力前沿技术系列一-CPO那些事

Key Points Industry and Company Involved * Industry: Data center networking, high-speed optical interconnects * Companies: Broadcom, NVIDIA, Intel, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), GROUX, PSP, Tianhe, Unisplendour, ZTE Core Views and Arguments 1. CPO Technology Development and Challenges: * Origin and Background: CPO technology emerged to address high-power consumption issues in high-speed optical communication [2]. * Current Status: CPO technology is maturing but still faces challenges such as low yield and thermal management [3]. * Future Outlook: TSMC predicts mass production of CPO technology by 2025, with further cost optimization [6]. 2. CPO Technology Solutions: * 2.5D and 3D Structures: CPO prototypes from companies like Broadcom, NVIDIA, and Intel are available in 2.5D and 3D structures [3]. * 2.5D vs. 3D: 2.5D structures have higher yield but larger form factor, while 3D structures are more compact but technically less mature [4]. 3. CPO Technology Challenges: * Low Yield: Achieving high yield in CPO technology is challenging due to differences in characteristics between optical and electrical chips [5]. * Thermal Management: Thermal management is crucial for CPO technology, as overheating can lead to failure [5]. * 3D Stacking Process: The 3D stacking process, which involves穿孔 to introduce external light signals, is not yet fully mature [5]. 4. CPO Technology Market Outlook: * Mainstream Solution: CPO technology is expected to become the mainstream solution for high-speed interconnects in switches in the coming years [3]. * Cost Reduction: Cost reduction is crucial for CPO technology to achieve widespread adoption [3]. 5. CPU Switch Market: * Outlook: CPU switch shipments are expected to increase significantly in the coming years, with a projected market share of over 30% by 2026 [9][10]. 6. CPO Technology in China: * Current Status: China's CPO technology is still in the early stages, with domestic companies focusing on core technologies like optical engines and fiber arrays [24]. * Future Outlook: China has the potential to catch up with international competitors due to its manufacturing and cost advantages [24]. Other Important Content 1. CPU Switch Cost Reduction: CPU switch costs are expected to decrease by 30% around 2026 as yield and technology improve [16]. 2. CPU Switch Maintenance Costs: Initial maintenance costs for CPU switches may be higher due to the need to replace the entire CPU. However, with technology maturity and reduced failure rates, overall maintenance costs may be lower than traditional switches [19]. 3. CPU Switch Fault Rates: Current fault rates for CPU switches are relatively high due to low yield. However, with technological improvements, fault rates are expected to drop below 1% by next year [20]. 4. Cable vs. Fiber Competition: In short-distance connections, copper cables have certain advantages, but for high-bandwidth and long-distance transmission, fiber optics are more advantageous due to their low loss and superior performance [13]. 5. GPU Impact on PCB Usage: The integration of optical structures into chips reduces PCB usage in CPU switches, impacting high-quality PCB material manufacturers [14]. 6. CPU Switch Market Drivers: CPU switch demand is driven by cloud providers and data centers, which provide capacity information to TSMC in advance [15]. 7. Optical Engine and Electrical Chip Roles: Optical engine chips are responsible for high-speed, high-bandwidth signal transmission, while electrical chips manage power consumption and ensure low-power operation [22]. 8. Modern Switch vs. Traditional Switch: Modern CPU switches use compact fiber arrays, reducing form factor and power consumption compared to traditional removable optical modules [23].