锰矿又现短缺-锰硅能否再起风云

Key Points Industry and Company Involved - Industry:锰硅 (Manganese Silicide) market - Company: Not specified, but discussions revolve around manganese ore and manganese silicide production and supply chain Core Views and Arguments - Market Dynamics: The manganese silicide market has experienced significant volatility with a recent surge in prices, driven by supply constraints and strong demand. - Supply Constraints: Shortages in manganese ore, particularly from key suppliers like South Africa, Gabon, and Ghana, have led to tightness in the manganese silicide market. - Demand: Despite a decline in real estate construction, demand for manganese silicide remains strong due to growth in exports, fixed investment, infrastructure, and industrial sectors like machinery, automotive, and appliances. - Price Trends:锰硅 prices have shown strong support around the 6,000 yuan level, with significant increases following breakthroughs in this range. - Inventory Levels: Manganese ore inventories have been declining, with the most significant reductions observed in ports and factory warehouses. - Future Outlook: The market is expected to remain tight in the near term, with potential for further price increases due to supply constraints and strong demand. Other Important Points - Manganese Ore Imports: Imports of manganese ore have decreased by 7.8% year-on-year from January to November 2024, with significant reductions in China's imports. - Production Trends: Manganese silicide production decreased by 12.8% year-on-year in 2024, while crude steel production remained relatively stable. - Price Elasticity: Steel mills are unlikely to significantly reduce their purchases of manganese silicide despite lower profits, due to its essential role in steelmaking. - Macroeconomic Factors: The impact of macroeconomic policies, including monetary and fiscal policies, as well as trade policies, could influence the manganese silicide market. - Investment Strategy: The presenter suggests maintaining a bullish stance on manganese silicide prices, given strong demand and supply constraints.