光伏玻璃专家-行业近况更新-节后涨价预期交流

Industry and Company Overview * Industry: Photovoltaic glass industry * Company: Not specified, but mentioned are key players like Xinyi and Fulei * Key Points: * Industry Growth: The domestic photovoltaic glass industry has seen rapid growth in terms of both installed capacity and production capacity. However, there is a significant capacity surplus across the industry, with the terminal component sector having an utilization rate of only about 50%. * Capacity Utilization: The photovoltaic glass sector has experienced a significant capacity surplus due to the rapid increase in capacity in recent years, leading to a supply-demand imbalance and significant losses in the second half of 2024. Since July, capacity has entered a rapid reduction phase, marking the first negative growth in five years. * Cost and Pricing: Photovoltaic glass accounts for about 16% of the total cost of photovoltaic modules. Since December 2023, prices have slightly increased due to capacity reduction and cost support, increasing the share to about 18%. Market Dynamics * Supply and Demand: The domestic photovoltaic glass capacity is approximately 8.9 million tons. Due to severe losses, the actual capacity is about 8 million tons. The overseas capacity is relatively stable at about 8,750 tons. The global total capacity is about 9.8 million tons, with 91% coming from China. * Regional Distribution: Currently, the national photovoltaic glass industry is mainly concentrated in the East China region, accounting for 58% of the national total capacity, with Anhui accounting for 44%. However, with the relocation of module production capacity, this high concentration may decrease in the future, and the capacity in the South China and Central China regions (such as Guangxi and Hubei) will gradually increase. * Market Structure: New entrants have been entering the market, such as traditional float glass companies like Qibin and Nansai, as well as new players like Dongfang Xiwang, Hesheng Silicon, and Hailu New Material. These new entrants have slightly reduced the market share of the two leading companies (Xinyi and Fulei), but the overall market structure remains stable. Challenges and Opportunities * Capacity Reduction: Due to the shift in supply and demand and insufficient demand, a large number of kilns have been undergoing cold repairs since 2024, including many new kilns. As of now, there are 44 kilns undergoing cold repairs, with a total daily capacity of 27,000 tons, accounting for 30% of the total production capacity. However, even with this, there is still an oversupply in the market. * New Capacity: The new capacity will mainly be driven by leading companies. Currently, Xinyi has four kilns ready for ignition, while Fulei has two. In addition, companies like Zhongguancun, Qibin, Nansai, Xinfuxing, Hailu, and Dongfang Xiwang are also close to or have the conditions for ignition, with a total of about 20,000 tons. These new additions will significantly affect the market supply and demand situation. * Price Trends: The price of photovoltaic glass has shown a slight rebound in December due to two factors: the rapid reduction in capacity after July and the increase in natural gas costs during the heating season, which has led to an increase in the price of 2.0 coated glass panels by 0.5 yuan per square meter. However, due to some companies' focus on inventory reduction and the price negotiation operation, the transaction price still has room for discussion, even if it has increased by 12 yuan or so, but it is still in the loss stage. Future Outlook * Supply and Demand: According to supply and demand analysis, although the supply is sufficient and it is difficult to improve significantly, the supply and demand in 2025 will continue to be better than in 2024. Due to the low starting capacity (such as 95,880 tons in January 2024), the supply pressure in 2025 will be significantly reduced, and with the cautious attitude of enterprises in new capacity investment, there will be a certain upward space in the second quarter. However, the Spring Festival holiday will affect the inventory increase, and the slow start of demand in the first quarter will lead to the accumulation of inventory, and it will take a certain period of time before the inventory enters the de-stocking state, and then it will have the conditions for price increase. In addition, the current natural gas cost accounts for about 43% of the total cost, and it takes 198 square meters of production per ton, which has a significant impact on the cost. While soda ash prices are 1,400-1,500 yuan, down 20% year-on-year, the cost pressure of soda ash is relatively small. * Cost Factors: The price of quartz sand is relatively stable, and companies like Xinyi and Fulei have their own sand mines. Currently, quartz sand accounts for about 18% of the total cost. The main factors that may change the cost in the future include natural gas costs and sodium metasilicate, which is used as a cleaning agent and has a small amount of use but has an abnormal price increase, which has an impact on the overall cost.