SIASUN(300024)2025-01-17 07:41Key Points Industry and Company * Industry: Humanoid robotics * Company: Tesla, OpenAI, 1X, UBTech, Daraa, Linwei Chuangte, Lese, Zhejiang Monopoly, Xiangxin Technology, etc. Core Views and Arguments * Global Policy Support: Major countries and regions are implementing robot policies and financial support, with China and the US being particularly active. The US has given AI projects the same priority as defense projects and is considering restricting or banning the import of advanced humanoid robots controlled by China. China has issued guiding opinions from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and implemented multiple national and local policies in 2024 and early 2025, such as the State Council's elderly robot program. [doc id='3'] * Supply Side: Tesla, 1X, and other companies are leading technological iteration, and domestic manufacturers such as UBTech and Daraa are also actively participating in competition. The output volume is expected to increase significantly in 2025, but the overall intelligence level is still relatively low. [doc id='3'] * Demand Side: Humanoid robots are mainly applied in commercial, intelligent manufacturing, and home service scenarios. Among them, intelligent manufacturing is the main application scenario for large-scale applications, while home service has huge potential. [doc id='3'] * Supply Chain: Key components such as joint assemblies and dexterous hands are accelerating the process of localization. Tesla has entered the small batch production stage, while domestic enterprises are at different stages of technical verification, resulting in differences in deterministic premiums. [doc id='3'] * Investment Strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to Tesla's supply chain related companies and enterprises with 'brain' empowerment capabilities, focusing on enterprises with deep business cooperation and strong positioning capabilities in the supply chain. [doc id='3'] * Market Size: The market size of humanoid robots is huge and is expected to exceed a trillion yuan, but technological iteration and expansion of application scenarios still face challenges, and opportunities and risks brought by policy changes and technological breakthroughs need to be paid attention to. [doc id='3'] * Domestic Industry Development: The core change in the domestic robot industry lies in building an ecosystem of enterprises with 'brain' empowerment, and the positioning capabilities of supply chain enterprises are becoming more prominent. It is recommended to pay attention to companies with deep business cooperation in the automotive or photovoltaic storage fields, as well as leading companies in the structural components field. [doc id='13'] Other Important Content * Capacity Planning: According to public information, Sanhua Top, Beite, and newly established companies have started capacity planning. In 2026, it is expected to reach a large-scale production of 50,000 to 100,000 units, and these companies are expected to obtain more market share. This mainly reflects the changes in the supply chain. [doc id='8'] * Robot Composition and Key Links: Humanoid robots are mainly composed of perception, decision-making, and motion control modules. The ability of the brain is the most important, determining the upper limit of the robot. The brain is responsible for completing human-robot interaction operations, while the cerebellum realizes path planning and drives the end effector to complete the command. Large models endow robots with intelligent capabilities, and domestic enterprises are gradually catching up with overseas high-quality large models, such as Douba from ByteDance. [doc id='9'] * Domestic Robot Industry Development: Domestic enterprises with technical accumulation and hardware development capabilities, such as Lese, Linwei Chuangte, and Lese, are deepening cooperation in the field of robots. This year, domestic robots will become an investment hotspot, and these enterprises are expected to obtain premiums as robots with 'brain' capabilities gradually emerge. [doc id='10'] * Important Progress in Robot Hardware: 1. Screw: The technology of screw has made significant progress in the past year, including the reduction of equipment cost and the improvement of grinding efficiency. It is expected that in 2025, there will be grinding machines with a price of hundreds of thousands of yuan, and the grinding efficiency can be improved to one hour. 2. Reducer: Traditional industrial reducers are highly competitive, and prices are constantly falling. Tesla mainly uses harmonic reducers, while domestic enterprises mainly use planetary reducers. In the process of mass production, it is not excluded that product changes will be made due to the demand for cost reduction. 3. Motor: Including hollow cup motor, brushless DC motor, and frameless three-dimensional motor. The hand motor has a high barrier, but with the progress of mass production, more low-cost solutions will be introduced, such as brushless oil tooth slot motor. 4. Sensor: Including six-axis force sensor and electronic skin. The six-axis force sensor accounts for a high proportion of the cost in the joint assembly, but it may be reduced in the future due to the improvement of software accuracy. The electronic skin is mainly applied to the hand end effector, and the installation has a certain scarcity. [doc id='11'] * Investment Suggestions: This year, attention should be paid to two main lines of domestic and foreign dual main lines, including Tesla chain and brain empowerment chain. In the Tesla chain, attention should be paid to companies with certain premium in the process from sample delivery to small batch production, such as Sanhua Top, Beite, and Mingzhi Electric. In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the阶段性 investment opportunities brought by technological changes and the market opportunities brought by the increase of sample suppliers due to the demand for cost reduction. [doc id='12'] * Investment Strategy for Domestic Robots: The investment strategy for domestic robots should focus on high timeliness information exchange, because the entire industry is changing every day. It is recommended to communicate with professional teams to obtain the latest dynamics and opportunities. At the same time, it is necessary to continue to pay attention to enterprises with deep business cooperation and strong supply chain positioning capabilities. [doc id='15']