Jefferies：CPO商业化进程正在加速

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - Industry: Technology, specifically focusing on the development and commercialization of CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) in relation to AI computing platforms, particularly those by nVidia and TSMC. Key Points and Arguments 1. CPO Commercialization Timeline: The commercialization of CPO is accelerating, with small volume orders expected for CPO SPE (Single-Photon Emission) by the second half of 2025 [1][7]. 2. Mass Production of CPO Modules: Initial mass production of 1.6T CPO modules is anticipated to begin between late 2025 and early 2026 [2][5]. 3. Challenges in AI Server Production: High-speed copper wire architecture in nVidia's AI servers has issues with energy consumption and space occupation, necessitating the adoption of CPO modules to address these bottlenecks [3][10]. 4. TSMC's Role: TSMC has successfully manufactured silicon photonic chips in-house, which are now ready for mass production. The qualification process for nVidia's CPO is expected to be finalized by mid-2025 [4][5]. 5. Backend Networking Structure: TSMC will not participate in the initial backend CPU networking structure coupling process but will join when CPO enters the GPU level [4]. 6. Importance of FAU Units: The FAU (Fiber-Optic Adapter Unit) is critical for the commercialization of CPOs, with potential advancements in testing timelines [3][4][21]. 7. Market Dynamics: The CPO market is expected to grow significantly, with All Ring being a key player in providing automated coupling tools for nVidia's demand [7][22]. 8. Power Consumption and Heat Dissipation: The next-gen Rubin platform is expected to adopt NVLink 6.0, which will increase power consumption and heat generation, making CPO modules necessary [14][18]. Additional Important Insights 1. Investment Focus: The focus of CPO investment should be on TSMC and OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) providers, with notable companies like FOCI and Browave playing significant roles in the supply chain [20][21]. 2. Future Market Potential: The total addressable market (TAM) for CPO is expected to be larger than that for CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) due to the demand for FAU coupling [22]. 3. Technological Readiness: Lasers and components for the 1.6T CPO are nearing mass production, contingent on cost-effectiveness and successful FAU testing [3][4]. 4. Collaboration and Supply Chain: TSMC's collaboration with various manufacturers is crucial for the successful ramp-up of CPO technology, with FOCI being a key partner in developing the CPO business [21][22]. This summary encapsulates the critical developments and insights from the conference call regarding the CPO technology landscape and its implications for the technology sector, particularly concerning nVidia and TSMC.