China Property_ Secondary Home Prices Continued to Soften In January

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Property market, specifically the secondary home prices in major cities across the country [1][8]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Price Trends: - January secondary home prices in major cities experienced a month-on-month (m-m) decline of -0.6% and a year-on-year (y-y) decline of -9.8% [2] - 64% of the tracked cities reported a m-m decrease in home prices, a slight improvement from 80% in December [2] 2. Listing Trends: - New secondary listings fell significantly by -45% m-m and -22% y-y in January, with all cities reporting a decrease [3] - Total listings also saw a slight decline, with 43% of cities recording a m-m decrease [3] 3. Visitations: - Visits to agent shops dropped by 43% m-m and 16% y-y in January, attributed to the earlier Chinese New Year [4] - However, visitations compared to February 2024 showed a 38% increase, indicating potential support for secondary home sales due to competitive pricing [4] 4. Market Sentiment: - The decline in listing and transaction prices may reflect weakening resident sentiment, which could exert further downward pressure on home sales and prices in the upcoming months [5] - The sustainability of any recovery in home sales is contingent upon effective implementation of announced policies, such as inventory buyback and urban redevelopment, supported by adequate funding from the central government [5] 5. Investment Recommendations: - The industry view remains In-Line, with a focus on persistent sales recovery as crucial for sector performance [6] - Suggested stocks for selective accumulation include CR Land (1109.HK) and CR Mixc (1209.HK), as well as defensive SOE developers like Greentown (3900.HK) and Yuexiu (0123.HK), which may outperform due to stronger sales potential [6] Additional Important Insights - The data indicates a seasonal impact on the property market, particularly around the Chinese New Year, affecting both listings and visitations [4][3] - The overall sentiment in the property market remains cautious, with analysts urging investors to wait for more favorable entry points before making significant investments [6] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring government policy effectiveness in stabilizing the property market and improving consumer confidence [5] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and outlook of the China property market, emphasizing price trends, market sentiment, and investment strategies.