五大方面，重新审视特朗普“新政”

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the implications of Trump's new policies on the U.S. economy and global markets, particularly focusing on trade tariffs and immigration policies. Core Points and Arguments 1. Trump's Power Dynamics: Although Trump appears to have consolidated power, internal conflicts within the Republican Party, particularly in the House of Representatives, may hinder legislative progress. The Republican majority is slim, with only 217 seats compared to 215 for Democrats, making it difficult to pass legislation without full party support [3][4][5]. 2. Inflation Concerns: Inflation is a significant concern that could impact Trump's ability to implement his policies effectively. If inflation is not controlled, it may affect his political standing and ability to push through reforms [8][9][22]. 3. Tariff Policies: Trump's administration is likely to pursue aggressive tariff policies, with an average tariff rate potentially increasing to around 20%. Current tariffs on China are approximately 19.3%, with room for significant increases [7][10][23]. 4. Trade Negotiations: The administration's approach to trade, including tariffs on Mexico and Canada, is seen as a negotiation tactic. The expectation is that tariffs will be implemented gradually, depending on the economic situation [6][9][10]. 5. Impact on U.S. CPI: The potential increase in tariffs could lead to a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with estimates suggesting a possible increase of 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points if tariffs are enacted as planned [11][12]. 6. Immigration Policies: Trump's plans to deport illegal immigrants face significant logistical and financial challenges, with estimates suggesting that deporting one million individuals could cost around $90 billion annually [20][21]. 7. Global Economic Impact: The potential for increased tariffs and immigration restrictions could lead to a slowdown in economic growth, particularly affecting U.S.-China trade relations. However, China's export competitiveness remains strong, and the overall impact on China's GDP is expected to be limited [12][13][14]. 8. Long-term Economic Strategy: The discussion emphasizes the need for China to focus on domestic consumption and technological advancements to counteract the effects of U.S. protectionism and to ensure sustainable economic growth [23][24][25]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. Political Landscape: The internal divisions within the Republican Party, particularly between establishment figures and the MAGA faction, could complicate Trump's policy implementation [2][4]. 2. Market Sentiment: There is a prevailing sentiment that if Trump's policies do not materialize as expected, market reactions could shift from risk-off to risk-on, indicating a potential for recovery in investor confidence [22]. 3. Future Projections: The call highlights the importance of monitoring inflation and tariff developments closely, as these factors will significantly influence economic conditions and policy effectiveness in the coming years [9][10][11].