当前时点看关税政策对跨境产业影响

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the impact of recent U.S. customs and tariff policies on cross-border e-commerce, particularly focusing on the implications for sellers and logistics in the industry [2][3][4][5][7][10][11]. Core Insights and Arguments - Tariff Increases: Starting February 1, 2024, tariffs will increase by 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and by 10% on goods from China. The implementation of these tariffs has been delayed for Canada and Mexico, but the 10% tariff on China is confirmed [2][3]. - Impact of T11 vs. T86: The transition from the T86 customs clearance model (which had no tariffs) to the T11 model (which incurs significant costs) is expected to increase seller costs by approximately 42%. For example, the total cost of a women's woven pant could rise from $70 to $100 under T11 [4][5][15]. - Compliance Trends: Sellers with lower capital and profit margins face a risk of being eliminated from the market due to increased compliance costs. Platforms like Shein, which rely heavily on supplier models, are particularly vulnerable [7][8]. - Warehouse Demand: The new tariff policies are anticipated to reduce warehouse leasing demand in South China, as global trends tighten small package tax exemptions [10][11]. - Shipping Methods: There is a significant cost difference between small package shipping (which incurs high tariffs and fees) and sea freight (which has lower import taxes). Low-margin products are more likely to opt for sea freight to minimize costs [14][31]. - Seller Adaptation Strategies: Sellers may resort to various strategies to mitigate costs, including using sea freight, package consolidation, and underreporting product values [5][6][7]. - Market Response: Despite the tariff increases, many sellers report a relatively calm response, as the overall impact on their operating costs is minimal, with only a 2-3% increase in total costs [9][31]. Additional Important Insights - Shift to Semi-Managed Models: The proportion of semi-managed platforms in North America has risen to approximately 70-80%, as full-service platforms struggle to maintain competitiveness amid rising costs [8][9]. - Long-Term Viability of T11: While T11 may be a sustainable option if operationally stable, its high costs deter many sellers from adopting it [15][16]. - Potential for Policy Changes: The full implementation of the T86 policy cancellation may take 2-3 years due to insufficient customs processing capacity [16][30]. - Inflation Concerns: The Trump administration is likely to consider inflation impacts when implementing new tariffs, as increased import prices could lead to broader economic consequences [32]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of tariff policies on the cross-border e-commerce landscape and the adaptive strategies of sellers in response to these changes.