Carrier (CARR)2025-02-11 16:45Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Carrier achieved 3% organic growth in 2024, with adjusted EPS growth of 16% and close to 100% core earnings conversion [6][7][16] - Reported sales for Q4 were 0.54, up 50% year-over-year [24][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - HVAC segment saw organic sales growth of 11%, with Americas organic sales up high teens [27][28] - Refrigeration segment was down 1% organically for the full year, with global truck and trailer business down around 10% [30][31] - Total company organic orders were up low teens, with HVAC orders up about 5% [32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Organic sales in EMEA were flat, driven by double-digit growth in commercial, offset by declines in residential and light commercial HVAC [29] - Organic sales in Asia were slightly positive, with strength in Japan and South Asia, but declines in residential and light commercial business in China [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Carrier is focused on margin expansion through operational excellence and disciplined capital allocation, with a strategic emphasis on digital lifecycle solutions [11][15] - The company expects continued double-digit growth in aftermarket and global commercial HVAC, with a focus on integrated systems and energy management solutions [12][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism for 2025, despite political and economic uncertainties in Europe, and expects organic growth in single digits [18][21] - The company anticipates a strong year with accelerated organic growth, margin expansion, and strong free cash flow [21][39] Other Important Information - Carrier completed a significant portfolio transformation, yielding over 3 billion in shares and increase the dividend per share by 18% [39][43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on residential HVAC performance and inventory levels? - Management indicated a slight prebuy of 100 million in Q4, with strong movement from distributors to dealers [48][49] Question: What is the outlook for revenue growth in 2025? - Management expects flat to down mid-single digits in market volume, with positive mix from heat pumps and aftermarket growth [60][62] Question: How are tariffs affecting operations, particularly in Mexico? - Management is actively monitoring tariff implications and is prepared to take pricing and operational actions to mitigate impacts [120][121] Question: Can you provide updates on capacity additions in Americas Commercial? - A new facility for commercial HVAC was established, significantly increasing output capacity, which positions the company for growth [90][92] Question: What are the expectations for Viessmann's margins in 2025? - Management expects EBITDA ROS to improve from low teens to mid-teens, with cost synergies increasing from 150 million [94][95]