China Property_ What are developers_landlords saying about CNY sales_. Sat Feb 08 2025

Summary of Conference Call on China Property Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the China Property sector, specifically discussing trends observed during the Chinese New Year (CNY) holidays in 2025 [1][3]. Key Insights from Developers and Landlords - State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) reported flattish year-over-year (Y/Y) growth in property sales, with variations from "mild Y/Y growth" to a decline in the mid-teens [1][3]. - Private-Owned Enterprises (POEs) predominantly experienced a Y/Y decline in sales, with some reporting declines of approximately 30-40% [1][3]. - For shopping malls, landlords noted a mild Y/Y increase in both same-store tenant sales and footfall, with overall tenant sales surging by over 10% Y/Y [1][3]. Sales Trends and Seasonal Factors - The CNY period is traditionally a low season for property sales, and January and February are influenced by project launches [3]. - The China Index Academy reported an 8% Y/Y growth in "28-city primary property sales" during CNY, but this figure may not accurately reflect actual sales due to delays in sales registrations [3]. - Developers indicated that discounts and rebates are still necessary to enhance sell-through rates [3]. Future Outlook - The month of March is anticipated to provide a clearer picture of sales sustainability, as the impact of policy easing from September 2024 will have mostly faded, and data will be less affected by public holidays [3]. - The overall estimate for February primary sales is a low single-digit Y/Y decline, similar to January [3]. Performance of Key Companies - Stock Preferences: The report highlighted preferences for China Resources Land and China Resources Mixc as favorable investment options [1][3]. - The report also provided a valuation summary for various companies in the sector, indicating different ratings and price targets [5]. Additional Observations - Luxury retail continues to underperform compared to the mass market, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [3]. - The continuity of a moderate recovery in tenant sales during CNY suggests a positive outlook for proxies like CR Mixc [3]. Conclusion - The insights from developers and landlords during the CNY period indicate a mixed performance in the China Property sector, with SOEs faring better than POEs. The upcoming months will be crucial for assessing the sustainability of sales trends and the overall recovery of the sector.