Global Economics_ Global Indicators January Chartbook_ The World in Pictures

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on global economic indicators as of January 2025, highlighting trends in the services and manufacturing sectors, as well as labor markets and inflation rates across various economies [1][3][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - Global Services PMI: The global services PMI decreased slightly to 52.2, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace [1][4]. - Global Manufacturing PMI: The manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1, suggesting a marginal improvement in manufacturing activity [1][4]. - Labor Market Conditions: Unemployment rates remain tight, with many economies experiencing rates at or below pre-pandemic levels, indicating a robust labor market [1][3]. - Inflation Trends: Both global headline and core inflation have significantly decreased from their cycle highs but remain above pre-pandemic levels, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1][3][10]. - Business Confidence: Business confidence in the US has risen notably since the election of President Trump, while it has weakened in other economies, likely due to concerns over tariff policies [1][3]. Additional Important Details - Country-Level PMI Analysis: The report includes detailed country-level PMI data, showing variations in economic performance across developed and emerging markets [11][12][13][15]. - GDP Growth Projections: The report provides forecasts for real GDP growth, indicating a year-over-year growth of 4.6% for the global economy, with developed markets (DM) at 2.8% and emerging markets (EM) at 1.6% [29][30]. - Retail Sales Trends: Recent developments in retail sales show a year-over-year growth of 3.4% globally, with developed markets at 3.4% and emerging markets at 3.3% [29][30]. - Industrial Production: The report notes a longer-term view of industrial production growth, with emerging markets showing a year-over-year growth of 3.7% compared to a decline of 0.5% in developed markets [32][33]. - Central Bank Policies: The report discusses the nominal and real policy rates across different regions, indicating a tightening of monetary policy in response to inflation [70][71]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape as analyzed by Citi Research.