Workflow
US Semiconductors_ December Sales Above Our Forecast But Below Seasonality. Raising C25 Semi Sales to Up 13% YoY. Still Positive on Semis.
Berkeley·2025-02-12 02:01

Summary of US Semiconductors Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the US semiconductor industry, specifically discussing sales data and forecasts for 2024 and 2025 [1][9][26]. Key Points December Sales Performance - December semiconductor sales reached 59.1billion,reflectingamonthovermonthincreaseof0.859.1 billion, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 0.8% but falling short of the seasonal expectation of 1.8% [1][10]. - The sales were above the forecasted estimate of 55.1 billion, which represented a month-over-month decline of 6.6% [1][10]. - Year-over-year, December sales increased by 14.1%, surpassing the estimated growth of 6.3% [2][10]. Unit Growth and Pricing - Units excluding discretes grew by 22.5% month-over-month, significantly exceeding the estimate of 5.9% and the seasonal growth of 7.4% [3][16]. - Year-over-year, units excluding discretes were up 8.2%, contrasting with the estimated decline of 6.5% [3][16]. - Average Selling Prices (ASPs) excluding discretes decreased by 18.7% month-over-month, which was below the expected decline of 12.2% and the seasonal decline of 5.8% [4][19]. - Year-over-year, ASPs rose by 6.7%, which was lower than the anticipated increase of 15.9% [4][19]. Sales Forecasts - For calendar year 2024, semiconductor sales were reported to be up 19.1% year-over-year, exceeding the previous forecast of 18% [1][5]. - The forecast for 2025 semiconductor sales has been raised from 9% to 13% year-over-year, amounting to 709.8billion[6][24].Thegrowthin2025isexpectedtobedrivenbybelowseasonalgrowthinQ1andseasonalgrowthinQ2,Q3,andQ4[6][24].MarketDemandandRisksDemandfromdatacenters,AI,andcommunicationmarkets,whichcollectivelyaccountfor30709.8 billion [6][24]. - The growth in 2025 is expected to be driven by below-seasonal growth in Q1 and seasonal growth in Q2, Q3, and Q4 [6][24]. Market Demand and Risks - Demand from data centers, AI, and communication markets, which collectively account for 30% of semiconductor demand, remains robust [7][26]. - There is an expectation of inventory replenishment in the analog segment in 2025 [7][26]. - The SOX index is currently trading at a 27X NTM P/E, which is a 22% premium over the S&P 500, indicating potential valuation risks for semiconductor stocks [26]. Segment Performance - Microcontroller sales saw a significant increase of 20.7% month-over-month, driven by higher unit sales [21]. - Conversely, microprocessor sales declined by 9.4% month-over-month, attributed to lower unit sales [20]. Additional Insights - The three-month rolling average sales for October to December 2024 were 57.0 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 17.1%, down from 20.3% in the previous period [11]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a mixed performance with strong unit growth but declining prices, which could impact future profitability [19][20]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data from the conference call regarding the US semiconductor industry, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.