China Coal_ Weekly Coal Update_ Weak Prices Post Chinese New Year

Summary of the Weekly Coal Update Industry Overview - Industry: Coal Industry in China - Date: February 10, 2025 - Key Focus: Thermal and coking coal prices, production statistics, and inventory levels Key Points Price Trends - Thermal Coal Prices: - Post-Chinese New Year, thermal coal prices have weakened further, with QHD 5500 down 0.3% week-over-week (WoW) to Rmb704/ton [2][88] - CCI 5500 remained flat WoW at Rmb761/ton, while BSPI decreased by 0.3% WoW to Rmb698/ton [2][88] - Seaborne thermal coal prices also decreased, with NEWC prices down 6.8% WoW to US$109/ton [2][9] - Coking Coal Prices: - Coking coal prices remained stable, with Liulin No. 4 mine-mouth prices flat at Rmb680/ton and FOR prices also flat at Rmb1,370/ton [3][89] Production Statistics - Coal Production by Province: - Inner Mongolia has surpassed Shanxi to become the largest coal-producing province in China, producing 1,299 million tons (mt), a 7.4% year-over-year (YoY) increase [4] - Shanxi produced 1,273 mt, down 7.3% YoY, while Shaanxi remained stable at 777 mt (+0.7% YoY) and Xinjiang saw the fastest growth at 524 mt (+17.4% YoY) [4] Inventory Levels - Port Inventory: - QHD port inventory decreased by 3.6% WoW to 6.43 million tons (mt) [3][9] - Inventory at Bohai Rim ports increased by 2.9% WoW to 26.6 mt [3] Market Dynamics - Market Sentiment: - The overall industry view remains cautious due to the weak price environment post-CNY and fluctuating inventory levels [9] Additional Insights - Regional Comparison: - The four major coal-producing provinces (Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang) now account for 81.6% of national coal production, up from 81.2% in 2023 and 78.2% in 2020 [4] - Seaborne Coal Shipments: - Weekly coal shipments from key exporters like Indonesia and Australia are being monitored, indicating potential shifts in supply dynamics [71][76] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the coal industry update, highlighting price trends, production statistics, inventory levels, and market dynamics.