大摩闭门会：中国创新与通缩辩论和美国可能的互惠关税

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of escalating global tariffs on the South Korean economy, particularly focusing on the semiconductor industry and its export-dependent nature [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Growth Forecasts: South Korea's projected growth rate for the year is 1.5%, a decline from the previous year's 2%, primarily due to tariff impacts [1][2]. 2. Tariff Scenarios: - Base case scenario assumes a reduction of tariffs on China to zero, leading to a 30 basis point reduction in growth forecast [1][2]. - Bear case scenario considers universal tariffs at 10% and bilateral tariffs on South Korea, potentially depressing GDP by at least 50 basis points [1][2]. 3. Semiconductor Exports: - Semiconductors constitute 20% of South Korea's total exports, with a potential 100% tariff posing significant threats [1][2]. - Approximately 8-8.5% of US-bound exports from South Korea are semiconductors, but secondary impacts could affect over 20% of exports in tech sectors [1][2]. 4. Fiscal Policy Measures: Anticipated supplementary budget allocations of approximately KRW20 trillion (1% of GDP) are expected to stimulate consumption and support small businesses [1][3]. 5. Monetary Policy Support: The Bank of Korea is expected to implement four additional rate cuts to stabilize macroeconomic conditions amidst trade uncertainties [1][5]. 6. Market Outlook: Expectations of weaker economic numbers and tariff risks may lead to rate cuts throughout Q4, with a projected growth rebound from 1.5% to 1.8% in 2025 [5][9]. 7. Sector Vulnerability: The automotive and technology sectors are most exposed to current US-Korea trade relations, with specific implications for companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix [10][11]. 8. Supply Chain Rewiring: Korean companies are moving operations into US markets, particularly in the automotive and semiconductor sectors [11][12]. 9. Investor Considerations: Political instability in Korea is a significant factor affecting investor sentiment, with retail investors shifting focus overseas [8][30]. 10. KOSPI Performance Projections: KOSPI is expected to have better performance in H2 2025 compared to H1, following a low note at the end of the previous year [9]. Additional Important Content - Comparison with Previous Trade Tensions: Current trade tensions are more extensive than those in 2000 or 2018-2019, with significant impacts on corporate confidence and capital expenditures [7][26]. - Impact of US Trade Policy: US trade policy is anticipated to be a major factor affecting market performance, with reciprocal tariffs putting pressure on corporate earnings [6][23]. - Regional Exposure: Smaller trade-oriented economies in Asia, including Korea, are particularly vulnerable to growth impacts amid tariff escalations [31]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the potential risks and opportunities within the South Korean economy amid ongoing global trade tensions.