China Materials_ 2025 On-ground Demand Monitor Series #18 - Aluminum Inventory and Consumption

Summary of the Aluminum Industry Research Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry in China, specifically tracking high-frequency demand trends and inventory levels during the week of February 6 to February 12, 2025, following the Chinese New Year [1][8]. Key Points Production Data - Total aluminum production in China was 833,000 tons (kt), remaining flat week-over-week (WoW) but increasing by 3% year-over-year (YoY) and 3% YoY on the lunar calendar [2]. - Aluminum billet production reached 310 kt, marking a 16% increase WoW, 15% YoY, and 8% YoY on the lunar calendar [2]. Inventory Levels - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory stood at 1,807 kt on February 13, 2025, which is a 7% increase WoW and a 10% increase YoY, remaining flat YoY on the lunar calendar [3]. - Social inventory was 1,098 kt, up 15% WoW and 20% YoY, while producers' inventory was 710 kt, down 4% WoW and 11% YoY [3]. - For aluminum ingots, total inventory was 1,014 kt, reflecting a 12% increase WoW and a 13% increase YoY [3]. - Aluminum billets had a total inventory of 793 kt, remaining flat WoW but increasing by 6% YoY [3]. Apparent Consumption - Overall aluminum apparent consumption was 739 kt, showing a significant 79% increase WoW and a 169% increase YoY, with a 7% increase YoY on the lunar calendar [4]. - Apparent consumption for aluminum ingots was 757 kt, increasing by 16% WoW but decreasing by 4% YoY on the lunar calendar, while aluminum billets saw apparent consumption of 292 kt, a 10-fold increase WoW and a 56% increase YoY [4]. Market Insights - The increase in aluminum inventory aligns with historical trends, indicating a cautious market expectation regarding demand recovery [5]. - The current inventory levels are higher than the same period in 2021 and 2024 but lower than the levels seen in 2022-2023 on the lunar calendar [5]. - The apparent consumption levels during this week were higher than the same periods in 2022-2024 on the lunar calendar, suggesting a potential recovery in demand [5]. Additional Considerations - The report emphasizes the importance of aluminum ingot and billet inventory data for calculating overall aluminum demand, as it encompasses a broader range of inventory types [5]. - The analysis is based on data from Mysteel, a consultancy specializing in the materials sector [1]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the aluminum industry research call, highlighting production, inventory, and consumption trends that are essential for understanding the current market dynamics.