Summary of Global Gas Research Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the European gas storage situation as of February 11, 2025, highlighting a significant decline in storage levels compared to historical averages and previous years [2][16]. - The US gas market is also discussed, with updates on underground storage and supply-demand dynamics [3]. Key Points and Arguments European Gas Storage - As of February 11, European gas storage was 47% full, equating to 49 billion cubic meters (bcm), which is 5% below the 5-year average and 20% lower than in 2024 [2]. - The rate of net withdrawals has accelerated to -4.2 bcm, up from -2.1 bcm a year ago and the 5-year average of -3.7 bcm [2]. - The estimated exit storage levels are projected to be in the high-30s%, compared to 58% at the end of March 2024 and 41% of the 5-year average [2]. - To meet the EU's storage target of 77%, a minimum of ~155 bcm of LNG is required, which is an increase of 17 bcm year-over-year [2]. - Germany has requested exemptions from storage filling targets for the current year [2]. US Gas Market - The EIA reported a 100 Bcf week-over-week decrease in underground storage, bringing total inventories to 2,297 Bcf, which is 3% below the 5-year average [3]. - Storage utilization in the US stands at 54%, below the 5-year average of 56% [3]. - The Lower 48 supply for 2025 has been upgraded to 112.5 Bcf/d, while demand is raised to 113.2 Bcf/d, indicating an average undersupply of 0.7 Bcf/d in 2025 [3]. Price Dynamics - The Dutch TTF price dropped sharply by 7% to the low-€50s/MWh, influenced by increased optimism regarding US-Russia talks [4]. - Despite the winter's end approaching, higher European gas prices are anticipated at around €40, compared to €35 in 2024, due to increased refilling demand [4]. - US Henry Hub prices remain elevated at 3.61/mmBtu from 15/mmBtu, despite muted demand [4]. Storage Utilization and Targets - The report includes detailed figures on gas storage utilization levels across various EU countries, indicating current levels and targets for filling [16]. - The total EU storage level is currently at 49%, with various countries having different intermediate and filling targets [16]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the challenges of storage injection over the summer due to lower current storage levels, necessitating increased LNG imports [2]. - The potential for voluntary storage targets among EU countries could mitigate forced buying impacts during the summer [4]. - The report highlights the ongoing volatility in oil and natural gas prices as a risk factor for investment in the sector [20]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the gas industry in both Europe and the US.
Global Gas_No sign yet of slowing withdrawals