BERNSTEIN：腾讯-最新报告

Tencent Holdings Ltd Conference Call Summary Industry Overview - Industry: China Internet - Company: Tencent Holdings Ltd - Rating: Outperform - Price Target: HKD 540.00 - Current Price: HKD 442.00 - Market Cap: HKD 4,057.04 billion Key Points and Arguments 1. Earnings and Growth Outlook - Tencent is positioned as a top pick in the China Internet sector, with strong near-term earnings trends and medium-term growth potential [1][13] - The company is expected to achieve a 12.8% growth in video gaming revenue in 2025, supported by new game launches and deferred revenue recognition [2][17] 2. Gaming Performance - After a slowdown in Q4, January saw a 24% growth in mobile billings, with 26.4% growth in China and 9.4% overseas [2][70] - Concerns about a potential gaming slowdown in 2025 are viewed as overblown, with expectations for continued growth driven by a strong game pipeline [15][67] 3. Advertising Revenue - The advertising outlook is robust, with a projected 36% increase in Video Accounts ad revenues in 2025, driven by an increase in ad load from 3% to 4.5% [3][24] - Video Accounts are expected to contribute significantly to ad revenues, with c. 550 million DAUs and 60 minutes of daily time spent per user [3][44] 4. E-commerce Growth - Excitement around WeChat's new gifting function is noted, with projections for 60% growth in Video Accounts e-commerce GMV in 2025, reaching approximately RMB 460 billion [4][33] - The real opportunity lies in monetizing the existing RMB 3-4 trillion of e-commerce on WeChat Mini Programs, which currently sees low monetization rates [19][35] 5. AI Integration - Tencent is considered a leading AI player in China, with expectations that AI will enhance both advertising and gaming development [5][31] - The company is leveraging AI to improve ad targeting and reduce production costs, which is expected to yield competitive advantages [32][41] 6. Financial Metrics - Projected Adjusted EPS for 2025 is CNY 26.75, with revenues expected to reach CNY 719,171 million [9] - The company is trading at 15.5x 2025E PE, which is within the historical range, indicating a stable valuation outlook [14] 7. Shareholder Returns - Anticipated total shareholder return for 2025 is projected at 17-20%, combining core business growth and potential buybacks [29] 8. Search Advertising Potential - Current monetization of WeChat search is below RMB 1 billion, indicating significant room for growth as search intent increases [26][47] Additional Important Insights - The gaming segment's strong performance in 2024 is expected to continue, with new titles like Path of Exile 2 and Valorant Mobile contributing to growth [72][73] - The company is focusing on maintaining discipline in expense growth, which should support profitability [28] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding Tencent's performance, growth strategies, and market positioning within the China Internet sector.