Global Economic Briefing_ The Weekly Worldview_ Reciprocity and Risk

The most obvious upside risk to growth is a gain in productivity, and frequent readers of Morgan Stanley research will know we are bullish on AI. Indeed, the level of productivity is higher than pre-Covid levels, and some tentative estimates could point to faster growth as well. A cyclically tight labor market no doubt contributes, and there could be some measurement error. But gains from AI do appear to be happening faster than in prior tech cycles, so we can rule little out. In our year ahead outlook we p ...