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Southern Company(SO) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 4.05for2024,representingan114.05 for 2024, representing an 11% growth from the previous year and at the top of the guidance range [27][40]. - Weather-normalized total retail electricity sales increased approximately 1% compared to 2023, with commercial sales up 17% year-over-year [28][30]. - The company expects retail electricity sales to grow approximately 2% to 3% in 2025 compared to 2024 [29]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company added 57,000 new residential electric customers and 26,000 new customers in natural gas distribution businesses [29]. - Georgia Power's total retail electric sales growth is projected to be approximately 12% from 2025 to 2029 [30]. - The commercial segment, which includes data centers, is projected to grow an average of 18% from 2025 to 2029 [30]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The economic development pipeline from large electric load customers represents over 50,000 megawatts of potential incremental load by the mid-2030s, with data centers alone accounting for roughly 80% of that potential load [11]. - The company signed contracts to serve over 1,000 megawatts of power needs for data centers in Alabama and Mississippi [12]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to its state-regulated utility franchises, which are expected to represent approximately 95% of projected capital investments [13]. - The capital investment forecast over the next five years is 63 billion, a 30% increase from the previous year's forecast [32]. - The company is exploring opportunities outside the Southeast to serve data centers with new natural gas generation [17]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth outlook, with a projected average annual sales growth of approximately 8% from 2025 through 2029 [30]. - The company aims to maintain strong credit quality, which distinguishes it from much of the industry [46]. - Management highlighted the importance of investing in future leaders to maintain competitive advantage [47]. Other Important Information - The company has paid a dividend equal to or greater than the previous year for 77 consecutive years, with projected continued modest increases in dividends [38][39]. - The financing plan supports the base capital plan while preserving investment-grade credit ratings [35]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Earnings growth cadence and potential derailments - Management indicated confidence in sustaining a long-term growth outlook of 5% to 7%, with incremental updates potentially allowing for a higher starting point as early as 2027 [54][56]. Question: Capital investment opportunities split - The majority of the 10billionto10 billion to 15 billion investment opportunities are associated with Georgia Power, with ongoing regulatory processes expected to provide clarity by mid-year [58][59]. Question: Southern Power's cumulative earnings trajectory - Management noted that Southern Power's assets are under long-term contracts, contributing to a stable earnings trajectory [67][70]. Question: Data center contracting changes - The company has codified rules to ensure balance and fairness in contracts with large load customers, which is expected to enhance market clarity [86][89]. Question: Availability of gas turbines - Management expressed confidence in their diversified supplier base for gas turbines, despite challenges in the supply chain [100][101]. Question: FFO to debt trajectory - Management aims to achieve a 17% FFO to debt level by the middle to late part of the five-year horizon [104]. Question: Growth in Alabama and Mississippi - Management highlighted significant economic development activity in both states, with projects expected to enhance capacity opportunities [108][109]. Question: Future of nuclear energy - Management emphasized the need for more nuclear energy as a long-term solution for low growth in the industry, advocating for continued investment in nuclear projects [113][116].