China Express_ Market Analysis for January 2025

Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Express industry for January 2025, highlighting the performance of major players in the sector [1][8]. Volume Growth - All major players in the express delivery sector achieved year-over-year (YoY) volume growth despite the earlier Chinese New Year (CNY) [2]. - SF Express led the market with a 16% YoY volume growth, attributed to more stable service during CNY [2][12]. - STO Express replaced Yunda as the third-largest player in the industry, achieving 12% YoY volume growth [2][12]. - Yunda lagged behind with only 3% YoY volume growth, while YTO Express recorded a 6% YoY increase [2]. Revenue Performance - SF Express also outperformed in terms of revenue, reporting a 6.5% YoY revenue growth [3]. - STO Express and YTO Express followed with 5.1% YoY and 1.5% YoY revenue growth, respectively [3]. - Yunda experienced an 8% YoY revenue drop, indicating a significant underperformance compared to its peers [3]. Average Selling Price (ASP) - The ASP for Yunda saw the largest decline, with an 11% YoY drop, making it the lowest among its competitors [4]. - Other players also experienced ASP declines: SF at 8.2%, STO at 6%, and YTO at 4% [4]. - Despite the overall decline, all players except Yunda achieved month-over-month (MoM) ASP growth due to price hikes during CNY [4]. Market Share Insights - As of January 2025, the market shares were as follows: - SF Express: 8.1% (up 0.3 percentage points YoY) - Yunda: 12.2% (down 1.1 percentage points YoY) - STO: 12.3% (no change YoY) - YTO: 13.8% (down 0.9 percentage points YoY) [5][6]. Industry Consolidation - The negative revenue growth of Yunda is viewed as a sign of industry consolidation, which is considered a positive signal for the industry and leading players [12]. - The overall performance indicates strong industry volume growth, despite the challenges faced by some players [12]. Conclusion - The express delivery sector in China is experiencing a dynamic shift, with leading players like SF Express capitalizing on stable service and growth opportunities, while others like Yunda face challenges that may lead to further consolidation in the industry [12].