Semiconductor Production Equipment_ Quantum Computing and GPU Replacement and Implications for Japan’s SPE

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Semiconductor Production Equipment (SPE) in Japan [1] - Analyst: Tetsuya Wadaki from Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd. [5] Core Insights - Microsoft's Quantum Computing Chip: Microsoft announced the development of a quantum computing chip named Majorana 1, which utilizes topological qubits to simplify error correction processes, a significant barrier to the commercialization of quantum computing [4][7] - Qubit Requirements: The chip aims to meet six essential conditions for qubits, including initializability, readability, scalability, long coherence time, and accurate conversion between stationary and flying qubits [4] - Potential Applications: Quantum machine learning is highlighted as a promising application, potentially leading to more efficient deep learning processes and reducing reliance on GPUs [2][9] - Prototype Development Timeline: Microsoft plans to complete a prototype quantum computer using Majorana within a few years, with a target of achieving a one million qubit device for commercial use [8] Implications for the SPE Industry - Near-Term Impact: The immediate impact on the SPE industry is expected to be negligible, as the completion of the quantum computer prototype is still several years away [7][9] - Long-Term Opportunities: Over the long term, the emergence of quantum computing could lead to increased demand for SPE from manufacturers like Advantest and Disco, as the market expands from GPUs to quantum devices [9] - Performance Requirements: The development of quantum computing could raise performance requirements for SPE, potentially increasing the value add and diversity of equipment needed [9] Additional Considerations - Current Limitations of Quantum Computing: Presently, quantum computing applications are limited to specialized calculations, such as breaking RSA encryption, but advancements could broaden its use in AI and machine learning [9] - Investment in AI: The potential for quantum computing to significantly enhance AI investments, such as the Stargate Project, is noted, indicating a shift in the technological landscape [9] Company Ratings in the SPE Sector - Advantest (6857.T): Overweight [56] - DISCO (6146.T): Overweight [56] - KOKUSAI ELECTRIC (6525.T): Equal-weight [56] - Lasertec (6920.T): Equal-weight [56] - Nikon (7731.T): Underweight [56] - SCREEN Holdings (7735.T): Equal-weight [56] - Tokyo Electron (8035.T): Overweight [56] - Ulvac (6728.T): Equal-weight [56] - Ushio (6925.T): Equal-weight [56]