大类资产配置月观点：加征关税风险暂缓，关注国内政策应对

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the investment strategies and market outlook related to the Chinese economy and various asset classes, particularly focusing on the implications of U.S. policies and domestic economic conditions. Core Points and Arguments 1. U.S. Tariff Policies: The discussion highlights that the implementation of tariffs proposed by the Trump administration is expected to be delayed, with the earliest possible start date being April 2. The overall risk from these tariffs appears to have diminished, but uncertainties remain regarding their impact on global capital markets [2][4][5]. 2. Monetary Policy Outlook: The Federal Reserve's likelihood of interest rate cuts in the first half of the year is considered low, with potential cuts in the second half depending on economic data. This stance is expected to influence asset prices negatively [5][6][7]. 3. Economic Growth Projections: The economic growth rate for the first quarter is projected to be around 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4%. The recovery in consumer spending is noted to be weak, particularly in sectors like entertainment and travel [7][8]. 4. Investment Recommendations: The call suggests a focus on gold and defensive assets due to their undervaluation and potential for stability amidst market volatility. The recommendation includes a strategic allocation towards healthcare and consumer goods, particularly in response to supportive government policies [3][10][19]. 5. Infrastructure and Construction Sectors: There is an emphasis on the potential for infrastructure-related investments, with eight specific sectors identified as having historically high performance during periods of infrastructure spending [11]. 6. Domestic Policy Implications: The upcoming Two Sessions (Lianghui) are expected to set the tone for future economic policies, but significant surprises are not anticipated. The focus remains on managing local government debt and stabilizing the economy [8][21]. 7. Commodity Market Dynamics: The outlook for commodities, particularly oil and steel, is cautious, with expectations of limited upward momentum. The discussion also highlights the importance of domestic policies in shaping the commodity market landscape [18][20]. 8. Currency Fluctuations: The call notes a recent decline in the U.S. dollar, with expectations for further depreciation. The relationship between the yuan and dollar is discussed in the context of interest rate differentials and monetary policy adjustments [23][24][25]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The call mentions the challenges faced by the AI sector due to open-source developments, which could disrupt existing business models. This indicates a broader trend of technological evolution impacting various industries [14][15]. - The potential for a rebound in the bond market is discussed, contingent on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and economic indicators [16][17]. - The impact of local government focus on debt management rather than growth initiatives is highlighted, suggesting a cautious approach to economic recovery [21]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and investment strategies.