Nonferrous Metals & Mining (Aluminum)_ Jan Domestic Aluminum Stats_ Up YoY

Summary of the Conference Call on Nonferrous Metals & Mining (Aluminum) in Japan Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the aluminum industry in Japan, specifically discussing the production and shipment statistics for January 2025 released by the Japan Aluminium Association [1][2]. Key Points Production and Shipment Statistics - In January 2025, production of aluminum rolled products was 124,000 tons, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.2% but a month-over-month decrease of 9.6% [2]. - Shipments of aluminum rolled products totaled 129,000 tons, which is up 2.8% year-over-year but down 6.2% month-over-month [2]. - Shipments of flat products were 80,000 tons (+2.1% YoY), extruded products were 50,000 tons (+3.8% YoY), and foil shipments were 7,100 tons (-3.7% YoY) [2]. Cumulative Production and Shipments - From April 2024 to January 2025, cumulative production of aluminum rolled products was 1,390,000 tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.1% YoY, while shipments were 1,398,000 tons, down 0.4% YoY [2]. End Use Shipments - Shipments of sheet for cans were 30,900 tons, marking a significant increase of 13.6% YoY, driven by strong demand for drink cans [3]. - Automotive sheet shipments decreased to 16,100 tons, down 2.0% YoY, coinciding with a 7.4% YoY decline in domestic auto production in December 2024 [3]. - Shipments for other applications, primarily SPE plates, increased by 6.2% YoY to 5,400 tons [3]. - Shipments of extruded products for construction were 27,000 tons (+3.6% YoY), while housing starts fell by 2.5% YoY to 62,957 units in December [3]. Foil Shipments - Foil shipments for electrical machinery and equipment were 3,700 tons (-3.6% YoY), while shipments for capacitors increased by 7.2% YoY, and shipments for lithium batteries decreased by 11.8% YoY [4]. Market Outlook - The overall industry view is considered "In-Line" by Morgan Stanley, indicating that the performance of the aluminum sector is expected to align with broader market trends [5]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the first positive year-over-year reading for extruded materials in six months, suggesting a potential recovery in this segment [7]. - The data indicates a mixed performance across different applications, with strong demand in the beverage can sector contrasting with declines in automotive-related shipments [3][7]. Conclusion - The aluminum industry in Japan is experiencing a complex landscape with varying demand across different sectors. While there are positive signs in certain areas, challenges remain, particularly in automotive production and some foil applications. The overall outlook remains cautiously optimistic as the industry adapts to changing market conditions.