JIANGXI BLACK CAT CARBON BLACK INC.(SZ:002068)2025-03-04 02:05Company and Industry Summary Company: 黑猫股份 (Black Cat Holdings) Key Points 1. Main Business and Profit Margins The primary business involves 100wt carbon black, with a profit margin of approximately 200-300 RMB per ton. Recently, prices have increased by 500 RMB, indicating a price adjustment. A further price increase is expected post-Lunar New Year, with an estimated rise of 300-500 RMB anticipated by late February to early March as inventory is replenished after the peak season [1][2]. 2. Lithium Battery Conductive Carbon Black Production The company has a production capacity of 3wt for lithium battery conductive carbon black, with expected shipments of 2wt. The low-end 3910 product is replacing Cabot, with a production capacity of 2wt and shipments of 1.5wt+, priced at 30,000 RMB per ton, yielding a profit of 10,000 RMB per ton. Key clients include CATL, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and BYD. The mid-range 4010 product has a capacity of 7-8kt, priced at 80,000 RMB per ton, with a profit margin of 40,000-50,000 RMB per ton, primarily used in 4C battery and heavy-duty vehicle applications. The high-end 6010 product, aimed at solid-state batteries, is priced at 250,000 RMB per ton, currently in limited testing [2][6]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics The anticipated new capacity of 1.1 million tons by 2025 includes many replacement capacities, such as substituting refined oil with coal tar, which offers cost savings. Many of these projects are planned for future years and may not all be operational by 2025 [2]. 4. Robotics Application The company is exploring the use of carbon black as a conductive agent in electronic skin pressure-sensitive sensors. Various grades of carbon black have been sent for testing to determine the most effective formulation [2]. 5. Volume and Price Analysis The carbon black production target for 2024 is 960,000 tons, with an internal goal of 1 million tons for 2025. Prices are expected to stabilize or see slight increases [2]. 6. Tar and White Carbon Black Products The profitability of tar deep processing products and white carbon black is not expected to change significantly, with volumes remaining stable [3]. 7. Lithium Battery Carbon Black Usage The usage of lithium battery carbon black is quantified at 1 GWh equating to 50 tons [4]. 8. Financial Performance The company is projected to turn a profit in 2024, confirming a profit inflection point. For Q4 2024, the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be between 75-85 million RMB, with a non-recurring profit of 58-68 million RMB. The company aims to enhance market share and internal management while maintaining high operational efficiency [4]. 9. Market Position As a leading player in the carbon black industry, the company has an annual production capacity of 1.162 million tons as of June 2024. The pricing difference between petroleum-based and coal-based carbon black is approximately 1,000 RMB, and the company is shifting towards oil products to benefit from cost advantages [5]. 10. Domestic Replacement of Conductive Carbon Black The company’s conductive carbon black products are aimed at replacing imported products, which are currently dominated by foreign manufacturers. This move is crucial for achieving domestic product substitution in the lithium battery sector [6]. 11. Sales of Super Conductive Carbon Black The company has several products suitable for new energy applications, which have begun to generate market sales, although sales are still gradually increasing [7]. 12. Testing of High-End Products The company is testing a high-end super conductive carbon black product for solid-state batteries with downstream customers [8]. 13. Shareholder Activity The controlling shareholder, Heima Group, increased its stake from 34.64% to 35% by purchasing 2.627 million shares between January 24 and February 10, 2025. Additionally, the company completed a share repurchase plan, acquiring 13.99 million shares, representing 1.90% of the total share capital [9].