淡旺季拐点至，铝板块需求如何变化？

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the aluminum industry, discussing demand changes and market dynamics as the industry transitions from off-peak to peak seasons [2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Seasonal Transition Indicators: The aluminum market is entering its peak season, indicated by a slowdown in aluminum ingot inventory accumulation and a rise in downstream operating rates. As of February 28, aluminum ingot inventory reached 870,000 tons, up from 840,000 tons the previous week, but the accumulation rate has significantly decreased compared to previous weeks [2][4]. - Downstream Demand Recovery: The overall operating rate for downstream processing enterprises has increased, with specific segments such as profiles, aluminum plates, and cables showing growth. This suggests a gradual recovery in demand, which is favorable for aluminum prices [2][4]. - Balanced Demand Structure: The demand structure for aluminum is becoming more balanced, with a decrease in the share of aluminum used in construction (down to 24% in 2024 from 36% in 2021) and an increase in transportation and electrical electronics applications, benefiting from the growth of the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic industries [4][5]. - Future Growth Areas: The electric power and automotive sectors are expected to be significant growth drivers for aluminum demand in 2025, with electric power demand potentially accelerating and the automotive sector transitioning from electrification to smart technology [5][10]. - Impact of Real Estate Market: The real estate market is experiencing a slight recovery, with new housing transaction areas increasing by 21% year-on-year, which will help mitigate the decline in construction-related aluminum demand [7][14]. - Photovoltaic Industry Growth: The photovoltaic sector continues to show strong growth, with significant increases in demand for photovoltaic brackets and frames, driven by installation surges due to policy incentives [8][9]. Additional Important Insights - Aluminum Processing Demand: Industrial profiles now account for nearly 60% of aluminum demand, surpassing construction profiles, which have dropped to 40%. This shift is attributed to growth in sectors like photovoltaics, automotive, and consumer electronics [6][10]. - Aluminum Plate and Strip Development: In 2024, aluminum plate and strip production increased by 1 million tons, with half of this demand coming from beverage can materials and the other half from automotive and aerospace sectors [12]. - Wire and Cable Market Growth: The aluminum wire and cable market saw a 12% year-on-year increase, driven by investments in power infrastructure and the rise of large-scale renewable energy projects [13]. - Forecast for Aluminum Products Demand: Demand for various aluminum products is expected to continue rising in the coming months, supported by the photovoltaic sector's installation rush, real estate market recovery, and a thriving automotive market [14][15].