再Call锑板块：远未结束，坚定看涨

Summary of the Conference Call on the Antimony Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the antimony (T) sector, with a strong bullish outlook expressed by analyst Wang Qingyang from Guojin Metal Materials Group, indicating that the market is far from over and remains optimistic about future price increases [2][22]. Key Points and Arguments - Historical Price Trends: Antimony prices have shown significant cyclical and volatile trends, with prices rising from approximately 40,000 RMB per ton in 2008 to 110,000 RMB in 2011, driven by commodity bull markets and resource quota policies [2]. - Current Market Dynamics: The recent surge in antimony prices is attributed to multiple factors, including commodity bull markets, policy adjustments (such as rare earth quotas and export controls), and the growth of the photovoltaic (PV) industry [2]. - Export Controls Impact: Recent export controls on high-purity antimony have led to a drastic drop in export volumes, from 5,000 tons in September to only 50 tons in October, significantly tightening market supply [4]. - Future Price Expectations: With the anticipated recovery of exports and the rebuilding of international trade order, domestic antimony is expected to shift from surplus to scarcity, with prices projected to rise from a base target of 250,000 RMB per ton to potentially over 300,000 RMB [2][22]. - Global Supply Chain Position: China controls about 50% of global antimony ore production and nearly 70% of smelting capacity, highlighting its significant bargaining power in the global supply chain [9]. - Photovoltaic Glass Market Influence: The price increase in photovoltaic glass has significantly boosted industry margins, with a notable increase in gross margins by nearly 10 percentage points due to rising glass prices [11]. - Supply and Demand Forecast: The global antimony production is approximately 130,000 tons, with an annual growth rate of only 2%-3%. The decline in production from companies like Russia's Polar Gold may lead to negative growth in global antimony supply by 2025 [18][19]. Additional Important Insights - Antimony in Photovoltaic Glass: Antimony is used in photovoltaic glass in small quantities, with a minimum addition of about 1.3‰ per ton of glass, indicating a stable demand even with zero growth in global installations [12]. - Market Demand Decline: In the second half of 2024, both domestic and foreign demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to decline significantly, with total demand dropping by 30%-40% [7]. - Price Discrepancies: There is a notable price difference between domestic and international photovoltaic glass, with domestic prices around 200,000 RMB per ton compared to 52,000 USD per ton internationally, indicating potential for increased exports [10]. - Investment Recommendations: Analysts recommend focusing on key players in the sector, such as Huaxi Nonferrous and Hunan Gold, which are expected to perform well due to their strategic positions and market conditions [22]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the antimony sector, emphasizing the bullish outlook and the factors influencing market dynamics.