国君农业｜生猪：累库

Summary of Conference Call on Swine Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the swine industry, specifically the current market conditions and trends in pig farming and pricing. Key Points and Arguments 1. Current Market Conditions: The swine market entered a secondary fattening phase starting February 10, with prices at 14.6 CNY/kg, but farms are experiencing losses due to high costs. As of now, prices have slightly decreased to 14.5 CNY/kg [2][3] 2. Utilization of Blue Coupons: The utilization rate of blue coupons for secondary fattening increased from 10%-15% to 20%-30% between January 20 and February 28, with significant growth in regions like Heilongjiang and Liaoning [2][3] 3. Slaughtering Plans: There is a notable increase in slaughtering plans from January to March, with Shanghai Steel Union reporting a month-on-month growth of 10.95% and Yongyi reporting 14.25%. This indicates significant pressure on slaughtering rates in March and continued growth into April [4] 4. Weight Trends: Post-Spring Festival, the average weight of pigs has been rising, reaching 127.06 kg by March 6, the highest since 2019. The average post-slaughter weight was recorded at 89.57 kg as of February 28, indicating a general trend of increasing weight [5] 5. Accumulation Phenomenon: The market is experiencing both volume and weight accumulation, particularly evident after the Spring Festival. It is expected that this accumulation will gradually be released in March and April, impacting the market [6] 6. Fat and Lean Price Differential: The average fat and lean price differential was approximately 0.46 CNY/jin from February 28 to March 6, maintaining a positive value post-Spring Festival. The absolute price differential has been narrowing for about a month [7] 7. Pre-Spring Festival Sales: Ahead of the Spring Festival, farmers anticipated potential losses and thus sold pigs early, leading to a 3% year-on-year increase in slaughtering volume at Muyuan's slaughterhouse from December to January [8] 8. Feed Data Impact: Feed data turned positive in January and February, with rising prices for corn and soybean meal. This has led to increased feed consumption, aligning with the overall accumulation in the swine industry [9] 9. Future Supply Expectations: In the coming months, the supply side is expected to be in a bottleneck state, particularly in Sichuan where slaughter weights have exceeded 135 kg. Prices may drop to between 13-13.5 CNY/kg as the backlog is released, with secondary fattening and frozen storage demand providing support [10] 10. Impact on Company Stock Prices: As production capacity is reduced and piglet prices decline, a strong phase of capacity reduction is anticipated in March and April. If pig prices exceed 14-15 CNY/kg, it could positively impact the stock prices of companies like Muyuan, Wens, Shennong, and Juxing, which have lower costs and growth potential [11] Other Important Insights - The overall trend indicates a complex interplay of rising weights, price pressures, and market expectations that could influence investment opportunities in the swine industry. The focus on cost management and market timing will be crucial for stakeholders in this sector.