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YPF(YPF) - 2024 Q4 - Earnings Call Transcript
YPFYPF(YPF)2025-03-07 19:07

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues reached 19.3billionin2024,markingan1119.3 billion in 2024, marking an 11% annual increase driven by rebounded fuel prices and a rise in oil exports [34] - Adjusted EBITDA totaled 4.7 billion in 2024, reflecting a 15% annual increase, mainly boosted by higher revenues in hydrocarbon production [35] - Net results improved substantially, posting a gain of 2.4billionin2024,comparedtoalossof2.4 billion in 2024, compared to a loss of 1.3 billion in the previous year [35] - Free cash flow was negative at 760millionin2024,impactedbymaturefieldsandsevereweatherconditions[59][60]BusinessLineDataandKeyMetricsChangesIntheupstreamsegment,totalhydrocarbonproductionamountedto536,000barrelsofoilequivalentperdayin2024,a4760 million in 2024, impacted by mature fields and severe weather conditions [59][60] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the upstream segment, total hydrocarbon production amounted to 536,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2024, a 4% increase versus 2023, with shale output representing 53% of the total [38] - Crude oil production grew by 6% in 2024, reaching 257,000 barrels per day, supported by a 26% shale expansion [39] - In the downstream segment, refinery processing levels exceeded 300,000 barrels per day in 2024, with a utilization rate of 92% [13][53] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - YPF accounted for nearly one-third of Vaca Muerta shale oil production, achieving an output of 122,000 barrels per day in 2024, a 26% increase compared to 2023 [24] - Oil export revenues nearly tripled in 2024, reaching close to 1 billion, with an average of 35,000 barrels per day [26] - The gap to import parity for fuel prices decreased from 20% in 2023 to just 2% in 2024, despite significant currency devaluation [27][51] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on transforming its oil production matrix by increasing shale oil production share from 50% to a minimum of 80% [7] - YPF is reallocating investments towards Vaca Muerta and leading the development of the VMOS oil export pipeline, targeting production ramp-up to 180,000 barrels per day by the second half of 2026 [8] - The company aims to reduce the well construction cycle by 30% by 2025, leveraging efficiency improvements from the Toyota Well project [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving production targets and emphasized the importance of operational efficiencies to mitigate challenges from mature fields and weather impacts [30][37] - The company anticipates sustained growth in 2025, focusing on its most profitable asset, shale oil from Vaca Muerta [25] - Management highlighted the positive outlook for LNG projects and the potential for further operational improvements [114] Other Important Information - YPF successfully issued international bonds totaling $800 million in January 2024, followed by additional bond transactions, effectively lowering yields [15][16] - The company reported a 15% growth in sales EBITDA in 2024 compared to 2023, despite challenges from mature fields and weather impacts [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Confidence in Vaca Muerta expansion and production ramp-up - Management expressed strong confidence in achieving the targeted production of 180,000 barrels by Q4 2026, citing partnerships and operational readiness [71][75] Question: Current selling prices and CapEx reduction considerations - Management discussed the pricing strategy for crude oil and gasoline, indicating that adjustments would be made based on market conditions, with potential CapEx reductions if oil prices decline significantly [81][102] Question: Free cash flow expectations for 2025 - Management confirmed plans for neutral cash flow in 2025, with further details to be provided at the upcoming Investor Day [110][113] Question: Update on LNG projects - Management provided a positive outlook on LNG projects, indicating that more details would be shared during the Investor Day [111][114] Question: Lifting costs and expectations for Q1 - Management noted ongoing efforts to maintain lifting costs through efficiency improvements, with expectations for stable costs moving forward [112][115] Question: M&A activity and interest in other assets - Management indicated no current interest in acquiring additional refineries but remains open to evaluating opportunities in core areas, particularly in Vaca Muerta [120][123]