旅游酒店及餐饮：重视行业“基础设施”，量价回暖可期

Summary of the Conference Call on the Tourism, Hotel, and Catering Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the tourism, hotel, and catering sectors within the service industry, with a particular emphasis on the outlook for 2025, highlighting the importance of industry infrastructure and the potential for recovery in both volume and pricing [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - 2024 Performance: The tourism and hotel sectors faced a downward trend in volume due to high base effects from 2023, while sub-sectors like catering and duty-free continued to experience pricing pressures [1]. - Valuation Recovery: Despite some recovery in valuations since September 2023, leading companies still have valuations below historical averages and comparable overseas firms [1][2][9]. - Consumer Behavior: A dual focus on rational consumption and value-for-money is expected to persist, with an emphasis on emotional value and cost-effectiveness [1][17]. - Policy Impact: A broader and more robust expansion of catering and tourism policies could lead to demand recovery and a turning point in volume and pricing [2][10]. Key Data Points - Spring Festival Performance: Domestic travel saw a 5.9% increase in visitor numbers, indicating resilience despite high base effects from the previous year [3]. - Price Trends: Hotel prices experienced a 3% decline, with occupancy rates dropping by 7 percentage points during the Spring Festival [5][6]. - Duty-Free Sales: Hainan's duty-free sales reached approximately 2.1 billion, down 16% year-on-year, but showing signs of recovery compared to a nearly 30% decline in 2023 [6]. Sector-Specific Insights Catering Industry - Market Dynamics: The catering sector is stabilizing, with leading brands like Haidilao and others showing resilience despite previous pressures on pricing and volume [21][22]. - Consumer Trends: There is a shift towards quality and service, with brands focusing on maintaining product quality rather than engaging in price wars [21][22]. Hotel Industry - Performance Outlook: The hotel sector is expected to see a gradual recovery, with leading brands like Huazhu and Atour maintaining competitive advantages through superior service and operational efficiency [30][31]. - Supply and Demand Balance: The supply of hotel rooms is expected to stabilize, with potential for price recovery if demand policies are effectively implemented [30]. Tourism Sector - Leisure Demand: The leisure tourism segment is anticipated to remain resilient, with a focus on high-value experiences despite some price pressures in popular destinations [35][36]. - Emerging Trends: The growth of niche markets such as ice and snow tourism is expected to provide new opportunities for companies within the sector [35][36]. Additional Important Points - Long-Term Trends: The service consumption sector is expected to grow, driven by structural changes in consumer behavior and increased focus on service quality and brand experience [14][15][19]. - Investment Recommendations: Analysts suggest focusing on leading companies with reasonable valuations, those with strong cyclical characteristics, and firms poised for recovery in demand [2][8][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the tourism, hotel, and catering industries.