基础材料：供给变化新动能（二）

Summary of Conference Call on Cement Industry Industry Overview - The conference focuses on the cement industry, highlighting its challenges and future outlook [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Demand Decline: The cement industry is expected to experience a continuous decline in demand over the next five to ten years, with a significant drop from 2.4 billion tons in 2021 to approximately 700 million tons, representing nearly a 25% decrease [2][3]. 2. Historical Demand Trends: From 2014 to 2021, the cement demand remained stable at around 2.4 billion tons, but began to decline in 2022 due to decreased real estate activity and infrastructure investment [2][3]. 3. Long-term Demand Projection: Long-term demand is projected to stabilize at around 1 to 1.2 billion tons, which is about half of the peak demand levels [3][4]. 4. Capacity Utilization Issues: Despite nominal capacity utilization rates being reported at over 60%, actual utilization may be as low as 53% by 2024, indicating significant overcapacity in the industry [4][5]. 5. Need for Capacity Reduction: The industry must undergo capacity reduction to achieve healthy development, as past attempts at supply-side reforms have not effectively reduced capacity [3][5]. 6. Historical Context of Capacity Management: The industry has seen attempts to manage capacity through policies like capacity replacement and peak-shaving production, but these have often resulted in nominal increases in capacity rather than reductions [6][7][9]. 7. Regional Capacity Shifts: There has been a trend of shifting excess capacity from regions with declining demand (e.g., Northeast China) to areas with higher demand (e.g., Guangxi, Hubei) [7][8]. 8. Policy Challenges: The effectiveness of policies aimed at reducing capacity has been undermined by industry responses that circumvent regulations, leading to a situation where actual capacity may not decrease as intended [9][10]. 9. Profitability through Peak-Shaving: The cement industry has managed to maintain profitability through peak-shaving production strategies, even at low capacity utilization rates, with prices increasing significantly during periods of limited supply [11][12]. 10. Future Outlook: The industry faces increasing cost pressures, particularly for smaller enterprises, necessitating further consolidation and capacity reduction to return to a state of supply-demand balance [13][14]. Other Important Insights - The cement industry has unique characteristics that allow for effective peak-shaving strategies, supported by government policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions and pollution [11][12]. - The long-term sustainability of profitability through peak-shaving is questionable, as demand continues to decline, necessitating a more robust approach to capacity management [13][14].