China Aviation_ Chart in the Spotlight_ International Air Capacity

Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China Aviation sector within the Asia Pacific region, specifically analyzing international air capacity and its recovery post-pandemic [1][58]. Core Insights - As of March 10, 2025, non-domestic Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) was at 78% of the levels seen in 2019, remaining unchanged from the previous week [2][11]. - Year-over-year, China's total absolute non-domestic ASK increased by 19%, indicating a positive trend in air travel demand [5][11]. - Excluding routes to the US, the recovery of non-domestic ASK reached 87% of 2019 levels, also stable compared to the previous week [11]. - Capacity changes were noted on specific routes: - Japan and US routes saw a 1% increase in capacity week-over-week. - Korea and Macau routes experienced reductions of 3% and 6%, respectively [11]. - Year-over-year ASK growth was significant for: - Japan: 48% - US: 42% - Hong Kong: 13% - Korea: 12% - Conversely, ASK decreased for Macau by 3% and for Thailand by 12% [11]. Capacity Recovery by Destination - Seat capacity recovery for selected destinations as of March 2025: - Japan: 113% of 2019 levels - Thailand: 54% - Korea: 82% - US: 31% [11]. Additional Insights - The report highlights that Hong Kong's air capacity had been reduced in the second half of 2019 due to social unrest, which may have ongoing implications for recovery [4]. - The data presented is sourced from OAG and Morgan Stanley Research, indicating a reliance on reputable industry data for analysis [4][8]. Conclusion - The aviation sector in China is showing signs of recovery, with significant increases in capacity and ASK on certain routes, while others are still lagging behind. The overall trend suggests a gradual return to pre-pandemic levels, particularly for routes to Japan and the US, while challenges remain for routes to Macau and Thailand [11].