中闽能源、福能股份深度报告

Summary of Conference Call on Fujian Energy Sector Companies Involved - Zhongmin Energy (中闽能源) - Funiu Co., Ltd. (福能股份) Key Points and Arguments Industry Overview - Fujian Province has a significant advantage in electricity supply and demand, with a 100% full consumption rate of wind and solar energy, a condition met by only four provinces in China as of now [2][3] - The province has not approved new onshore wind projects since 2017, leading to future growth in offshore wind energy [2][3] - The share of renewable energy in Fujian's total electricity generation is only 11% as of 2024, indicating low volatility and manageable grid absorption [3] Zhongmin Energy - Zhongmin Energy focuses primarily on wind energy, with 60% of its total profit in 2023 derived from offshore wind energy [2][6] - The company has a total installed capacity of 960,000 kW, with a strong focus on clean energy development [6] - Historical ROE for Zhongmin's offshore wind projects ranges from 23% to 26%, outperforming industry averages [8] - Expected profit for 2025 is around 700 million yuan, with a potential increase of 12% to 800 million yuan in 2026 due to new wind and solar projects [2][8] - Current valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 14, indicating over 30% upside potential [2][8] Funiu Co., Ltd. - Funiu is the largest comprehensive power company in Fujian, with a total installed capacity of 6.05 million kW [9] - The company derives 60% of its profits from wind energy, 30% from thermal power, and 10% from nuclear power [9] - Funiu's historical ROE ranges from 11% to 15%, with thermal power potentially reaching 25% in favorable years [9] - Expected profit for 2025 is approximately 2.9 billion yuan, with a projected 12% increase to 3.2 billion yuan in 2026 due to enhanced thermal competitiveness [2][9] - Current valuation is below 9 times PE, suggesting a 20% upside potential [2][9] Market Dynamics - Both companies are well-positioned in the market, with Zhongmin holding a 24% market share and Funiu holding 10% [2][5] - The profitability of offshore wind projects is enhanced by lower cost per kilowatt-hour and additional green certificate revenues [4][5] - The upcoming projects in 2026-2027 are expected to significantly boost both companies' profitability, with IRR estimates of 8% or higher for Zhongmin and 10%-12% for Funiu [2][9] Risks and Considerations - The companies face potential risks from declining thermal power prices and the impact of coal price fluctuations on their competitive load [9] - Monitoring the release of new offshore wind resources and subsidy progress in Fujian is crucial for both companies' future performance [2][9] Conclusion - Zhongmin Energy and Funiu Co., Ltd. are positioned to benefit from the stable electricity market in Fujian, with strong fundamentals and growth potential in renewable energy projects [2][9]