货运观察：基于季度中期业绩报告更新零担货运（LTL）预估；调整 2025 年第一季度后的发展轨迹和倍数

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) freight industry, specifically analyzing the performance of key players such as Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), SAIA, ArcBest Corporation (ARCB), XPO Logistics, and TFI International (TFII) [1][5][8][21][24]. Core Insights and Arguments - Tonnage Growth Adjustments: The post-1Q25 tonnage growth trajectory has been tempered to align more closely with historical seasonality. ODFL's tonnage decreased by 7% YoY, while SAIA's increased by 13% YoY, and XPO's decreased by 8% YoY [1][2]. - Pricing Discipline: Core industry pricing is expected to maintain discipline, with ODFL's revenue per hundredweight (ex-fuel) averaging a 4% increase YoY [1]. - Economic Outlook: The ISM new orders index fell below 50 in February, indicating potential challenges in manufacturing recovery. Goldman Sachs economists have downgraded their industrial production and GDP growth forecasts for 2025 to 2.3% and 2.0% YoY, respectively [2]. - Valuation Adjustments: Price target multiples have been lowered by half to a full turn on P/E ratios due to uncertainties surrounding growth trajectories and economic deceleration concerns [2][9]. Company-Specific Updates - Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL): FY25/26 EPS estimates have been reduced from $5.65/$6.70 to $5.40/$6.35, reflecting a more conservative tonnage growth outlook [8]. - SAIA: EPS estimates for FY25/26 have been adjusted from $15.30/$19.15 to $14.65/$18.40, with expectations for sequential tonnage growth tempered [12]. - ArcBest Corporation (ARCB): EPS estimates have been lowered from $7.25/$10.65 to $6.20/$9.45, reflecting a conservative expectation for tonnage builds [17]. - XPO Logistics: FY25/26 EBITDA estimates have been adjusted from $1,324 million/$1,530 million to $1,306 million/$1,498 million, with EPS estimates lowered from $4.10/$5.25 to $4.00/$5.10 [21][22]. - TFI International (TFII): EPS estimates have been revised from $6.00/$7.45 to $5.85/$7.35, reflecting a more conservative outlook for LTL tonnage growth [24]. Risks and Opportunities - Downside Risks: Include slower-than-expected recovery in the industrial economy, inability to improve pricing or yield, and potential increases in operating expenses that could impact margins [10][14][19][23][26]. - Upside Risks: Include stronger-than-expected volume momentum, better cost control, market share penetration through terminal expansions, and further industry consolidation [11][16][20]. Conclusion - The LTL sector is expected to show significant recovery potential, but caution is advised due to economic uncertainties and adjustments in growth expectations. The report maintains a Neutral rating for the companies analyzed, with specific price targets adjusted downward to reflect the current economic landscape [5][9][13][18][22].