消费提振预期下如何看家电？

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Home Appliance Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the home appliance industry in China, discussing market trends, retail performance, and investment opportunities in the sector [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - Market Style Shift: There is a notable shift in market style from technology sectors like AI to consumer sectors, driven by consumption-boosting policies [2]. - Retail Performance: Home appliance retail is expected to progress in a wave-like manner rather than experiencing sharp declines. The first two months of 2025 are influenced by a short-term pull-forward effect from December, but the overall impact on annual performance is minimal [3][4]. - Sales Growth Expectations: Air conditioning shipments are projected to achieve double-digit growth from March to August 2025, supported by promotional seasons and national subsidy policies [3][4]. - Tariff Concerns: Concerns regarding tariffs are diminishing, with companies having low exposure to U.S. revenues being less affected. This alleviates valuation pressures on the sector [3][5]. - Valuation Levels: White appliance companies are currently valued at historical lows, with Gree at less than 7 times earnings, Midea at about 23 times, and Haier and Hisense around 10 to 11 times [3][6]. - High-End Brands: Haier is benefiting from domestic sales transformations and its high-end brand, Casarte, showing strong performance with a 15% year-on-year growth in air conditioning installations in January-February 2025 [3][8]. Additional Important Insights - Black and Kitchen Appliances: The black appliance sector is benefiting from trends like larger screens and increased Mini LED penetration, while kitchen appliances are seeing growth due to the release of second-hand homes in first-tier cities [3][9]. - Export Performance: In 2024, China's home appliance exports exceeded $100 billion, marking a 14% year-on-year increase. The first two months of 2025 also show a 6% increase in export value [3][20]. - Competitive Landscape: The competitive landscape in the home appliance market remains robust, with retail subsidies expected to reach 80-100 billion yuan, driving growth in the sector [10][21]. - Investment Recommendations: Recommended investment targets include low-valuation, high-dividend white appliance companies like Gree, Haier, Hisense, and Midea, which are expected to benefit from domestic sales recovery and consumption-boosting policies [7][21]. Conclusion - The home appliance industry in China is poised for growth, supported by favorable market conditions, improving retail performance, and strategic investment opportunities. The focus on consumer spending and government support is expected to drive positive trends in both domestic and export markets [2][20][21].