全年维度对消费乐观起来

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The overall consumption market is showing a clear cyclical recovery trend, with a significant stabilization in the consumption environment despite low elasticity [2][3] - The retail sales growth rate rebounded to approximately 4% in February 2024, with the restaurant sector performing particularly well at a growth rate of 4.3% [2][3] - The job market is showing positive signals, with double-digit growth in new hiring numbers since the beginning of the year, and no significant decline observed post-Spring Festival [2][3] Key Insights - The consumption market in 2024 is impacted by the decline in middle-class purchasing power and the diversion of outbound tourism, significantly affecting the duty-free industry [3][4] - Duty-free sales data from Hainan indicates a notable improvement in delivery data since December 2024, with a narrowing decline in average transaction value and overall sales, suggesting signs of consumption recovery [3][4] - The restaurant industry has outperformed the overall retail market in February, benefiting from immediate consumption characteristics and policy stimuli such as consumption vouchers [5] Policy Impact - Consumption-boosting policies, such as birth subsidies and special consumption initiatives, are gradually being implemented, playing a crucial role in stabilizing market confidence and asset prices [6] - The introduction of consumption-related policies post-pandemic reflects the government's emphasis on economic recovery [6] Base Effect and Market Outlook - The low base from 2024 is expected to lead to significant improvements in apparent growth rates this year, particularly in sectors that faced demand pressure starting in April of last year [7] - The overall market trend is positive, with a notable increase in foot traffic during the Spring Festival period and early March, indicating improvements even in traditionally slow seasons [8] - The combination of consumption-boosting policies, low base effects, and emerging hotspots is anticipated to continue driving market growth in the coming months and throughout the year [8]