TYN(000591)2025-03-25 06:36Summary of China Solar Industry Conference Call (21 March 2025) Industry Overview - Industry: China Solar Industry - Date: 21 March 2025 Key Points Polysilicon Prices and Inventory - Mono-grade polysilicon price remained stable week-over-week (WoW) at Rmb40/kg, with high inventory levels of 267k tonnes (approximately 2.7 months) preventing price increases. Continued inventory decline is expected due to demand recovery [1][1][1] Price Trends for Solar Components - N-type wafer prices increased by 1.7% WoW to Rmb1.20/pc for M10, while G12 prices remained stable at Rmb1.55/pc. - Topcon cell prices rose by 1.7% WoW to Rmb0.30/W for M10, with G12 prices stable at Rmb0.30/W. - Module prices increased by 1.4% WoW to Rmb0.73/W for Topcon and remained stable at Rmb0.85/W for HJT. - PV Infolink forecasts a 24% month-over-month (MoM) increase in module production to 52GW in March, driven by strong demand ahead of a new tariff policy effective from 1 June [2][2][2] Solar Glass and Soda Ash Prices - Solar glass prices remained flat WoW at Rmb13.75/22.25/sqm for 2.0mm/3.2mm, with inventory decreasing by 4.9% WoW to 28.87 days. - Soda ash prices remained stable at Rmb1,600/tonne [3][3][3] Export Performance - Solar cell and module exports fell by 32% YoY to US1.07 billion, with inverter shipment volume up by 2% in M225. - India showed the strongest demand among emerging markets, with inverter export volume up 61% YoY, while other regions like South Africa, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia saw declines [4][4][4] Domestic Installations - China solar installations reached 39GW in M225, up 7.5% YoY, attributed to rush installations before the new tariff policy takes effect. Continued growth in installations is expected leading up to June [5][5][5] Risks and Opportunities - Downside Risks: 1. Slower-than-expected growth in installed domestic renewable energy capacity 2. Larger-than-expected tariff cuts for renewable energy projects 3. Increased competition from other power resources under future power reforms [24][24][24] - Upside Risks: 1. Faster-than-expected growth in installed domestic renewable energy capacity 2. Smaller-than-expected tariff cuts for renewable energy projects 3. Market share gains for solar energy compared to other power resources under future reforms [25][25][25] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China solar industry, highlighting price trends, export performance, domestic installations, and associated risks and opportunities.