2025-03-25 06:36Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Industry: Biopharma in North America - Market Analysis: Comprehensive analysis of the US drug market conducted by IQVIA Rx Key Market Metrics - Total Prescription Year-over-Year (YoY) Growth: - Latest weekly growth (week ending March 14, 2025) was +4.0%, up from +3.0% the previous week and +2.3% over the past 12 weeks [1][2] - For the week ended March 14, the total market weekly TRx YoY change was +4.0% compared to +1.2% a year ago [2] - Rolling 4-week TRx YoY was +3.1% and rolling 12-week TRx YoY was +2.3% [2] - Extended unit (EUTRx) weekly YoY growth was +2.2%, which is below the TRx YoY growth [2] Company-Specific Insights - Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY): - Cobenfy, approved for schizophrenia on September 26, 2024, had approximately 1,340 scripts for the week, an increase from ~1,300 the previous week [3] - To meet 2025 consensus expectations, Cobenfy TRx needs to track at ~2-3x the volumes from recent schizophrenia launches, with an estimated requirement of ~125K TRx to reach consensus estimates of $160 million [3] - Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX): - Journavx, approved for acute pain on January 30, 2025, recorded ~1,150 scripts for the week, up from ~610 the previous week [4] - To achieve a sales estimate of $87 million, approximately 229K and 441K total scripts are needed for 14-day and 7-day script durations, respectively [4] Competitive Landscape - Biosimilars: - Updates on biosimilar launches including Amgen's Wezlana and Teva's Selarsdi, with respective launch dates of January 17, 2025, and February 21, 2025 [5] - Seasonal Vaccines: - RSV vaccine volumes are tracking ~65% below last year's levels, while COVID vaccine volumes are also down year-over-year [9] Notable Drug Performance - Eli Lilly (LLY): - Mounjaro and Zepbound launches are being tracked, with Mounjaro showing significant growth [10] - AbbVie: - Humira is experiencing a decline of -41% YoY, while Rinvoq and Skyrizi are showing growth rates of 43% and 49% respectively [22][23] Additional Insights - Market Dynamics: - The analysis indicates that extended unit data trends were more positive than prescription trends, suggesting a shift towards longer-duration prescriptions [33] - Sales Trends: - The IQVIA databases differentiate between prescription and sales trends, with TRx representing total prescriptions dispensed including refills [29] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the biopharma industry, specific company performances, and market dynamics.