大摩：盈利改善，上调中国市场各指数目标价

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The focus is on the Chinese equity market, specifically indices such as Hang Seng, HSCEI, MSCI China, and CSI 300 [2][45]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Index Target Increases: The year-end index targets for Hang Seng, HSCEI, MSCI China, and CSI 300 have been raised to 25,800, 9,500, 83, and 4,220, respectively, indicating an upside of 9% for Hang Seng, HSCEI, and MSCI China, and 8% for CSI 300 from current levels [2][45]. 2. Earnings Growth Forecasts: Earnings growth forecasts for MSCI China have been adjusted to 7% for 2025 and 9% for 2026, driven by improved earnings estimates and macroeconomic outlook [2][49]. 3. Earnings Beat: MSCI China is experiencing its first earnings beat after 13 consecutive quarterly misses, with a net 8% earnings beat reported for 4Q24, marking a significant recovery [3][9]. 4. Valuation Re-rating: MSCI China's valuation is expected to align with MSCI EM, with a 12-month forward P/E forecast raised to 12.5x, closing the previous discount of 6% [4][51]. 5. Geopolitical Risk: The geopolitical landscape has improved, reducing the equity risk premium for China, which is expected to enhance its investability [33][51]. Additional Important Insights 1. US Tariff Exposure: MSCI China has only 3% revenue exposure to the US, the lowest among major EM trading partners, making it relatively insulated from potential US tariff hikes [7][38]. 2. Southbound Flow: There has been a significant increase in southbound capital flows into Hong Kong, with a record net inflow of over US$100 billion in the previous year and US$50 billion year-to-date [52][55]. 3. Sector Performance: Technology and AI-related sectors are showing stronger momentum, with recommendations to be overweight in these areas while waiting for broader market improvements [8][49]. 4. Market Concerns: Key concerns include potential escalations in US-China tensions, macroeconomic slowdowns, and deflationary pressures, which could impact market performance [8][62][63]. Conclusion The Chinese equity market is showing signs of recovery with improved earnings forecasts and valuation adjustments. However, geopolitical risks and macroeconomic factors remain critical considerations for investors. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with recommendations to focus on high-quality stocks and sectors poised for growth.