CHINA COAL ENERGY(601898)2025-03-26 07:35Summary of China Coal Energy Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - Company: China Coal Energy Co., Ltd. - Industry: Coal and Energy - Market Cap: US9.12 - Current Price: HK$8.12 Key Financial Results - 2024 Net Profit: Rmb18.2 billion, down 10% YoY, slightly below estimates of Rmb18.6 billion and Rmb18.4 billion [1][2] - Final Dividend Declared: Rmb0.258/share, maintaining a 35% payout ratio similar to the previous year [2] - Cost of Goods Sold: Decreased by 2% YoY to Rmb344.8/ton [2] - EBIT: Down 20% YoY in the chemicals and machinery segment [2] - Average Selling Price (ASP): Thermal ASP dropped 6.6% YoY to Rmb562/ton [2] Revenue and Production Data - Quarterly Revenue: - 1Q23: Rmb59,158 million - 2Q23: Rmb50,198 million - 3Q23: Rmb46,852 million - 4Q23: Rmb36,760 million - 1Q24: Rmb45,395 million - 2Q24: Rmb47,590 million - 3Q24: Rmb47,428 million - 4Q24: Rmb48,987 million - YoY Revenue Growth: 33% [4] Market Dynamics - Contract vs. Spot Prices: Convergence of contract and spot prices indicates potential risks for contract price cuts, which account for 75% of China Coal's volume [3][8] - QHD5500 Price: Rmb687/ton, indicating a slight decrease [9] Risks and Outlook - Downside Risks: - Potential for contract price cuts due to convergence with spot prices [3][8] - Weak performance in the chemicals and machinery segment [2] - Upside Risks: - Stronger-than-expected recovery in coal demand [13] - Higher realized domestic coal prices [13] Valuation Metrics - EPS Estimates: - 2024: Rmb1.41 - 2025: Rmb1.26 - 2026: Rmb1.10 [6] - P/E Ratio: 4.2 for 2024 [6] - EV/EBITDA: 3.9 for 2024 [6] - Dividend Yield: 8.7% for 2024 [6] Conclusion - The financial results for China Coal Energy Co., Ltd. reflect a modest shortfall compared to expectations, with stable dividend payouts. The company faces challenges in the chemicals and machinery segment while navigating market dynamics that could impact pricing strategies. The outlook remains cautious, with potential upside from demand recovery and pricing but significant risks from market price fluctuations.