Summary of Miniso (MNSO US) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Miniso (MNSO US) - Industry: Specialty Retail - Market Cap: USD 13,065 million - Current Share Price: USD 20.79 - Target Price: USD 27.70 (previously USD 29.30) [5][23] Key Financial Results - 2024 Adjusted Net Profit: RMB 2,721 million, up 15% year-on-year [2] - 2024 Revenue Growth: 25% year-on-year [2] - Operating Profit Margin (OPM): Decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 19.5% due to margin dilution from accelerated opening of self-operated stores [2] - Dividend Declared: USD 0.3268 per ADR, representing a full-year payout of 50% on adjusted net profit [2] Future Guidance - 2025 Expansion Plans: Slower pace of expansion expected compared to 2024, but revenue growth anticipated to accelerate due to improving same-store sales growth (SSSG) [3] - 2025 Revenue Growth Forecast: 25% year-on-year [3] - 2025 Net Profit Growth: Expected to grow by 12% year-on-year, but revised down by 9% due to negative impacts from Yonghui acquisition and higher finance costs [3][22] - 2026 Profitability Outlook: Anticipated improvement in profitability post-acquisition restructuring of Yonghui [4] Valuation and Target Price Adjustments - Target Price Reduction: DCF-based target price cut by 5.5% to USD 27.70 [5][23] - 2025 Operating Profit (OP) Estimates: Slightly lowered by 1% due to conservative OPM assumptions [3] - 2025/26 Net Profit Estimates: Reduced by 9% due to higher finance costs and losses from Yonghui [22] Market Position and Risks - Overseas Market Contribution: Expected to contribute over 70% of revenue growth from 2024 to 2027 [21] - Key Risks: - Continued negative SSSG in China due to deteriorating offline traffic [27] - Potential for lower-than-expected margins from overseas self-operated stores [27] - Rising competition and potential disruptions from pandemics or other events [27] Financial Ratios and Projections - 2024 Revenue: RMB 16,994 million, with a year-on-year growth of 22.8% [24] - 2025 Revenue Estimate: RMB 21,252 million, with a year-on-year growth of 25.1% [24] - 2026 Revenue Estimate: RMB 25,687 million, with a year-on-year growth of 20.9% [24] - 2024-2026 CAGR for Net Profit: Revised to 17.6% from previous 22.5% [22] Conclusion - Investment Rating: Maintain Buy rating despite target price reduction, indicating a potential upside of 33.2% from current share price [5][27] - Market Sentiment: The company is positioned to benefit from overseas growth, although domestic challenges remain a concern [4][21]
名创优品-建议买入，运营增长依然稳健