中远海运港口-2024 财年核心收益比市场预期低 8%，不过估值要求不高

Summary of COSCO SHIPPING Ports (1199.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - Company: COSCO SHIPPING Ports (CSP) - Ticker: 1199.HK - Market Cap: HK$17,979 million (US$2,313 million) [3] Financial Performance - FY24 Core Profit: US$60 million, down 31$0.142 per share, going ex-dividend on April 3, 2025 [1] Future Guidance - Throughput Growth Guidance for 2025E: Low-single-digits growth expected [2] - Investment Rating: Maintained a Buy rating despite FY24 core earnings being 8% below consensus due to attractive valuation [2] Valuation Metrics - Current Price (as of March 21, 2025): HK$4.78 [3] - **Target Price**: HK$5.90, implying a potential share price return of 23.4% and an expected dividend yield of 7.1% [3] - Expected Total Return: 30.5% [3] Risks and Considerations - Downside Risks: - Potentially aggressive capital expenditures that could erode free cash flow [20] - Disappointing actual deliveries compared to targets and consensus [20] - Suboptimal acquisitions and divestments leading to ROEs below capital costs [20] - Longer-than-expected downturns in global container demand [20] - Elevated inflation affecting earnings yield spread [20] - Upside Risks: - Capacity discipline among liners to avoid price wars [20] - Stronger-than-expected demand and effective cost controls [20] - Decline in bond yields [20] Key Financial Metrics (Summary) - Net Profit: - 2022A: US$304 million - 2023A: US$321 million - 2024E: US$295 million - 2025E: US$323 million - 2026E: US$342 million [5] - **Diluted EPS**: - 2024E: US$0.08 - 2025E: US$0.09 - 2026E: US$0.10 [5] - P/E Ratio: - 2024E: 7.4x - 2025E: 6.8x - 2026E: 6.4x [5] Conclusion CSP is navigating a challenging environment with declining core profits and throughput but maintains a positive outlook for future growth. The company's valuation remains attractive, supporting a Buy rating despite recent performance setbacks. Investors should be aware of both the risks and potential upside factors as they consider their investment strategies.