Summary of Miniso Conference Call Company Overview - Company: Miniso - Ticker: 9896 HK (H shares), MNSO US (ADR) - Market Capitalization: Approximately 5.7 billion HKD Key Industry Insights - China SSSG Recovery: Expected to recover from a high single-digit decline in 2024 to a mid-single-digit growth in 2025, driven by improved consumer sentiment and strategic initiatives [1][5] - Overseas Expansion: Significant growth anticipated with 50-70% of new store openings planned for international markets, contributing to a projected 1.1 percentage point uplift in operating profit margin [1][5] - Yonghui Acquisition: Miniso's acquisition of a 29.4% stake in Yonghui is expected to lead to a clearer turnaround strategy, with a target to significantly reduce losses in 2025 [1][5] Financial Performance - 2024 Revenue Growth: Revenue and adjusted earnings increased by 22.8% and 15.4% year-over-year, respectively, aligning with expectations [1][5] - 2025 Forecasts: Revenue and earnings are projected to grow at compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) of 18% and 24% from 2025 to 2027 [1][5] - Price Target Adjustments: New price targets set at 43 for H shares, based on a 15x 2025E P/E ratio [1][5] Strategic Initiatives - Store Expansion Plans: Miniso plans to open 500-600 new stores overseas in 2025, including 200-300 direct-to-consumer (DTC) stores, with a focus on the US market [5][10] - IP Strategy: Aiming for 90 new intellectual property (IP) projects in 2025 to enhance consumer engagement and drive same-store sales growth [5][9] - Membership Growth: Plans to expand the membership system, as members reportedly spend 2.2 times more than non-members [5][9] Operational Insights - DTC Store Margins: Current DTC stores have the lowest margins, but improvements are expected as the store count increases and operational efficiencies are realized [5][9] - Cost Management: Strategies to manage costs include sourcing 30% of products from outside China and adjusting pricing to maintain stable gross margins amid tariff pressures [12][13] Earnings Estimates - 2025 Revenue and Profit Projections: Group revenue is expected to grow by 25.8% in 2025, with adjusted operating profits anticipated to accelerate compared to 2024 [15][21] - Adjusted Net Profit Growth: Forecasted adjusted net profits for 2025 are projected to grow by 21.2% year-over-year [21][15] Risks and Considerations - Market Concerns: Ongoing concerns regarding SSSG performance and margin erosion due to investments in overseas DTC stores [6][19] - Tariff Risks: Miniso is actively working to mitigate risks associated with US tariffs through supply chain diversification and pricing strategies [12][13] Conclusion Miniso is positioned for recovery and growth in 2025, with strategic initiatives in place to enhance its market presence both domestically and internationally. The focus on IP development, store expansion, and cost management will be critical in navigating the challenges ahead while capitalizing on emerging opportunities in the retail sector.
名创优品 -中国标准普尔 500 指数有望回升；海外利润率将改善；永辉超市 2025 年亏损将收窄；上调至增持