美国周刊启动要点_在 4 月关键政策变动中，关税对股市的影响将超过量化紧缩放缓的影响

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involvement - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. equity market, specifically the S&P 500 index and its performance in light of upcoming tariff announcements and Federal Reserve policies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Tariff Policy Changes: - The U.S. is expected to announce reciprocal tariff increases on April 2nd, with a potential rise in the effective tariff rate by 10 percentage points (pp) to 13%, the highest since 1938 [2][11][19]. - Each 5 pp increase in the effective tariff rate could reduce S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) by approximately 1-2% [19]. 2. Quantitative Tightening (QT) Adjustments: - The Federal Reserve will slow its balance sheet runoff by $20 billion per month starting in April, with expectations for QT to conclude by the end of 3Q 2025 [20][24]. - The nominal 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is projected to remain around 4.35% by year-end [29]. 3. Market Performance Outlook: - The S&P 500 index is forecasted to be flat over the next three months but expected to rise by 11% by year-end as economic growth and earnings continue [2][37]. - The S&P 500 is currently 9% below its February record high and down 5% year-to-date [3]. 4. Investor Sentiment: - The U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator has dropped to -1.2, the lowest since April 2023, indicating a bearish outlook among investors [3][8]. 5. Sector Performance: - Long-duration equities, particularly in the tech sector, have underperformed during recent market sell-offs, while "bond proxies" like Real Estate have outperformed [30][32]. 6. Economic Policy Uncertainty: - The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has surged, reflecting increased volatility in the equity market due to tariff policy uncertainties [11][14]. 7. Earnings Growth Projections: - The baseline forecast for S&P 500 EPS growth in 2025 is 7%, contingent on the anticipated tariff increases [19][47]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. Market Sensitivity to Growth Expectations: - The relationship between S&P 500 returns and economic growth expectations has strengthened, indicating that adjustments to growth outlooks will be more impactful than changes in yields for near-term equity performance [2][38]. 2. Correlation Between Stocks and Bond Yields: - There is a positive correlation between stock performance and bond yields, suggesting that favorable economic news may lead to higher stock prices even if it results in increased bond yields [39][42]. 3. Rebalancing of Investment Baskets: - The report includes a rebalancing of long and short duration equity baskets, indicating strategic adjustments in response to market conditions [31][46]. 4. Impact of Employment Reports: - Upcoming employment reports are highlighted as critical indicators for equity investors, with expectations of job gains decreasing from 151K to 138K [39]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the U.S. equity market, particularly in relation to tariff policies and Federal Reserve actions.