未知机构：国金晨讯精选250407之一对等关税点评宏观宋雪涛对等-20250407

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the impact of tariffs, particularly the "reciprocal tariffs" between China and the United States, indicating a potential new phase of economic turmoil rather than a resolution of existing tensions [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - The focus of tariffs is on negotiation and strategic maneuvering rather than calculating direct economic impacts. China is not intimidated by U.S. tariff policies, as the dynamics between the largest consumer and manufacturer are shifting in China's favor due to industrial upgrades and international expansion [2][4]. - From a macro perspective, China should continue its economic development, industrial upgrades, and reform efforts independently of U.S. tariff policies, which will enhance its bargaining power in tariff negotiations [4]. - The "reciprocal tariffs" are expected to exceed initial expectations, leading to heightened risks of "stagflation" in the U.S. This could result in a downward trend in U.S. stock markets and a significant impact on global trade, with potential delays in recovery until late Q3 or Q4 [4]. Additional Important Insights - Regardless of geopolitical changes, the correct path for internal and external circulation remains unchanged. Investments related to the "Belt and Road Initiative," "Western Development," and "New Western Land-Sea Corridor" are expected to strengthen [5]. - Key areas of focus include high-quality construction of the "Belt and Road" by 2025, the development of the Pinglu Canal to enhance access to the sea for the southwestern industrial chain, and the role of domestic infrastructure in supporting cement demand [5]. - In the chemical industry, the market has already anticipated tariffs, with a noticeable reduction in the export share of Chinese chemical products to the U.S. The systemic advantages of domestic chemical manufacturing remain strong, and companies with global operations are better positioned to withstand tariff impacts [5].