未知机构：华西机械关税风波下的出口链与科学仪器出口链短期的极致恐慌自主可控领域值得-20250407

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the export chain and scientific instruments industry, particularly in the context of tariff impacts and domestic substitution opportunities. Core Insights and Arguments 1. Export Chain Disruption: The current tariff situation has led to extreme panic in the export chain, particularly affecting companies with high exposure to the U.S. market under Trump's tariff policies. This has resulted in significant declines in stock prices for previously high-performing companies in the first quarter [1][3]. 2. Impact of Tariffs in Southeast Asia: The recent tariffs have had an unexpectedly severe impact in Southeast Asia, leading to a significant devaluation of companies that had successfully transferred production capacity to this region [2][4]. 3. Long-term Performance Outlook: Despite the current pessimism, companies with high exposure to the U.S. market are expected to outperform market expectations in the long run, similar to the performance seen after the previous technology trade war [4]. 4. Globalization of Production Capacity: Companies that have globalized their production capacity are likely to be the first to raise prices, balancing demand and profit margins. This is particularly relevant for tools and equipment [4]. 5. Domestic Production Considerations: Companies that have concentrated production in China may be forced to establish manufacturing facilities in North America due to increased tariffs, with the final impact depending on the specifics of the tariff implementation [4]. Recommendations for Investment 1. Focus on Undervalued U.S. Market Companies: It is recommended to pay attention to undervalued companies with U.S. market exposure, such as Juxing Technology, Zhejiang Dingli, Ousheng Electric, and Quanfeng Holdings [4]. 2. Scientific Instruments Sector: The scientific instruments sector, particularly in electric measurement instruments, is highlighted as a key area for domestic substitution, with current market shares of domestic companies being below 10% [5]. 3. Potential for Domestic Substitution: The introduction of counter-tariff measures is expected to accelerate domestic substitution, especially in the components sector [5]. 4. Investment in Specific Companies: Suggested companies for investment in the scientific instruments sector include Puyuan Precision, Xindong Lian Ke, Dingyang Technology, and Youlide, all of which are positioned well for growth and have strong performance indicators [6]. Other Important Considerations 1. Market Risk Appetite: There is a noted decrease in short-term risk appetite in the market, leading to significant devaluation of export chain companies. However, it is still advisable to focus on leading companies in niche sectors [7]. 2. Focus on Self-sufficiency: The self-sufficiency sector is identified as a preferred direction for investment, with recommendations to consider sectors such as semiconductor equipment, scientific instruments, and machine tools [8].