锦欣生殖：2024 年下半年业绩回顾 - 国内患者治疗延迟与美国业务扩张，关注政策支持影响，评级中性

Summary of Jinxin Fertility (1951.HK) Earnings Review Company Overview - Company: Jinxin Fertility (1951.HK) - Industry: Healthcare Services, specifically in In Vitro Fertilization (IVF) Key Financial Performance - 2H24 Revenue: Rmb1.37 billion, a decrease of 6.0% year-over-year, below the expected Rmb1.51 billion [1] - Adjusted Net Profit: Rmb111 million with an adjusted net margin of 8.1%, down from 18.0% in 1H24 and 14.9% in 2H23 [1] - Domestic IVF Cycles: Decline attributed to slower insurance coverage rollout in key cities like Shenzhen and Chengdu, leading to treatment delays [1] - Overseas Market Growth: Significant increase in overseas cycle volumes, up 18.2% year-over-year in 2024 [1] Operational Insights - Cost Management: The company aims to achieve 10% cost savings through operational efficiency improvements [1] - Focus on Cash Flow: Emphasis on cash flow management in the domestic market by reducing capital expenditures and M&A activities [1] - New Doctor Onboarding: Margin pressure due to the onboarding of five new doctors in 2024, still in the early ramp-up phase [1] Future Outlook - 2025 Guidance: No specific guidance provided due to ongoing assessments of the domestic policy landscape [2] - US Market Potential: Positive outlook in the US driven by new legislation (California's SB729) mandating IVF insurance coverage starting mid-2025 [2] - AI Applications: Exploration of AI in IVF processes, particularly in embryo selection and treatment plan design, aimed at improving outcomes and reducing costs [2] Market and Policy Impact - Insurance Coverage: Monitoring the impact of medical insurance coverage on patient visits and treatment demand [3] - Pricing Pressure: A 5% decline in pricing observed, linked to hospital classifications; plans to apply for Class III hospital status to enhance pricing power [13] Valuation and Risks - Price Target: Maintained at HK$2.90, reflecting a target P/E multiple of 18x, up from 17x due to improving sentiment [14] - **Earnings Estimates**: 2025-26 EPS estimates reduced by 20.7$9.9 billion / $1.3 billion [4] - **Market Capitalization**: HK$8.1 billion / $1.0 billion [4] - Revenue Forecasts: Expected revenue growth from Rmb2,811.6 million in 2024 to Rmb3,547.3 million by 2027 [4][11] - EBITDA Growth: Projected to recover from a decline of 13.2% in 2025 to a modest growth of 2.3% by 2027 [8] Conclusion Jinxin Fertility is navigating a challenging domestic market with a focus on operational efficiency and cash flow management while exploring growth opportunities in the US market. The company faces significant risks related to policy changes and market dynamics, which could impact its future performance.