BERNSTEIN：亚洲半导体 & IT 硬件 & 全球内存

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the semiconductor and IT hardware industry, with a focus on the implications of increasing U.S. content in products to mitigate tariffs [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - U.S. Content Requirement: To qualify for tariff exemptions, products must contain at least 20% U.S. content. This necessitates significant production shifts to the U.S., which is challenging for companies like Apple [2][3]. - Impact on iPhone Production: The iPhone 16 Pro Max's Bill of Materials (BOM) shows that SoC (14%), memory (7%), and other components account for approximately 50% of the BOM. Transitioning production to the U.S. could take several years, with estimated tariff increases of around 50% due to the high percentage of assembly in China [3][19]. - AI Server Production: Unlike iPhones, the production of AI servers can be more easily shifted to the U.S. due to their assembly primarily in Mexico, which is exempt from new tariffs. This transition is seen as economically viable due to the higher profit margins associated with AI servers [4]. - Intel's Position: Intel's CPUs, primarily produced in the U.S., may benefit from lower tariffs, while companies like TSMC and AMD could face negative impacts due to their reliance on assembly in China [5][41]. - MediaTek's Resilience: MediaTek is less affected by tariffs as its supply chain is primarily based in Asia, allowing it to maintain market share despite the ongoing tariff disputes [5][14]. Additional Important Insights - Cost Implications: The cost of producing components in the U.S. could rise significantly, potentially exceeding 50%, which may not justify the fixed costs of relocating production [3][4]. - Supply Chain Dynamics: The supply chain for camera modules and other components is heavily concentrated in Asia, with a transition to U.S. production expected to take around two years [24]. - Investment Ratings: Various companies in the semiconductor space received ratings, with MediaTek rated as outperform with a target price of NT$1,820, and TSMC also rated outperform with a target price of NT$1,430 [7][13][14]. Conclusion - The semiconductor and IT hardware industry is navigating complex challenges related to tariffs and production shifts. Companies are assessing the feasibility of increasing U.S. content in their products while managing cost implications and supply chain logistics. The competitive landscape is influenced by these dynamics, with varying impacts on different players in the market.